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quant traps.

updated with latest FOMC GDP projections. Current outlook turned a bit more bullish short term

thanks for the reply, that's closer to what i thought may be the reason for your argument. Ive seen research suggesting both otm options being expensive, or fair (especially commodity futures options). What the bxm data implied is that these options are indeed morce expensive than fair most of...

thanks. i looked up black scholes valuations again. it looks more like an expectation for dividends are discounted, so with leaps you are betting on not just vol, but also changes in expectations of future dividends.

I used to do the same when i was a kid, try to change the subject when i have a hard time explaining myself. *Investor: "how do you expect these trades to make money in the next 5 years?", Me "You dare to quesition me? How about you just wait and if it makes money you give me more money?" How do...

You 're really worked up about this, haha, relax man. I didnt mean to embarrass you, for all it's worth it's ok if you simply cant express your logic yet, it's not a big deal I've been through it too. You being right or wrong doesn't change my PnL, i wouldn't care. i just wanted to see a...

Historical data means little, and OK, no credible source. I just wanted to dig deeper into the how and why you could be right, and if I'm wrong that'd be great since it'd mean I've learned something today.

So no credible source? Thanks for your opinion, it makes a bit of sense intuitively though a lot of things in this game ends up being counterintuitive. I'll think about your ideas.

While I respect your personal opinion. If you could provide some sources to back your perspective, it'd be much more appreciated.

OK, I worded it badly. Apologies for my lack of clarity, I meant any variation of simple "covered calls", explicit or synthetically.

Can you provide a source for this opinion? Is it associated with Gordan's Growth Model?

well, you basically agreed with me. That you'd need to have a significant edge in timing individual names and vol to generate actual alpha.

covered calls, or any variations of it, underperforms against simply buy & reinvest-dividends of the index. https://www.cboe.com/us/indices/dashboard/bxm/ There you can see BXM (SPX Buy Write) underperfoming vs. SPX, which doesn't even include the dividends. Replacing stocks with leaps is even...

Latest estimate is at +4.3~ bullish still. Attached is a recent window fit of the latest quantamental model. Actual sample used is from 2013, and the histograms would be too small to be easily read. Statistical details, graphs, performance tracking

faaantastic!

Latest model estimate: +3.2, which is weakly bullish link, details here.

vega is known, just do a web search for greek calculation formulas. It feels like you dont really understand how options are valued yet, it's best to master the fundamentals first.

Yeah, but micro stakes, like only 0.01/0.02 blinds. So not that big of P&L swings, and it's fairly easy to play with a positive expectation over time.

We all know that the 6th down day would bring about eternal damnation, of course.

When I started out, grinding poker helped a lot from maintaining mental focus, of learning to remind yourself to make +EV decisions, even after consecutive bad beats. It took me about 200k hands to achieve the level of mental stability needed to easily keep cool, while managing trades intraday.