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  1. J

    Smart Money is Long

    Yeah, but whoever started this said "By the time some people realize what they missed it will be too late. This is the nature of markets. If you are expecting a magic entry point you might be waiting until late 2012. You might get some retracement in January but certainly not to the totally...
  2. J

    Can't Go Wrong with Gold - Peter Schiff

    Based on what? Gold held up better than stocks in the 2008 crash, too, and it hasn't exactly done poorly since then.
  3. J

    Smart Money is Long

    Remember, the good ol' days, when "smart money" was long and the S&P was at 1240. When was the sell signal?
  4. J

    Chuck Hughes services

    The year is coming to an end...any updates? Have you at least made a profit and covered the subscription costs? For the record, the only thing I've considered buying from him are his books in the $50-$100 range. Of all the "gurus," Hughes seems to have more respect and fans than most. If...
  5. J

    Stronger growth rates under Democratic administrations

    Obama may have become more moderate in his proposals. I don't know how often his proposals or website are changed-maybe as often as he changes socks. If I'm wrong, I apologize. I know 60/40 was one of his early targets. Obama's site, however, has its share of misinformation, such as...
  6. J

    Stronger growth rates under Democratic administrations

    - Double the capital gain tax on stock and real estate sales - Increase FICA taxes by 14 points on all income over $100,000 - Double taxes on dividends - Expand the inheritance tax And 60/40 may be gone, too. Since this is allegedly a "trader's" forum, one would think there would be...
  7. J

    Stronger growth rates under Democratic administrations

    That's not what I said and you totally missed the point. And learn how to spell "Reagan" for heaven's sake.
  8. J

    Stronger growth rates under Democratic administrations

    Uh, no. Jeremy Siegel and many others have written about this. Stocks have their best performance by far in states of gridlock...which probably supports libertarianism (i.e, very few new laws or regulations) more than anything else. I'd be less worried about Obama if Republicans...
  9. J

    Rate Hike in 2008? Whatever...

    Let's see... 1) Jobless claims skyrocketing. Tomorrow's NFP should be very ugly unless the numbers are heavily "massaged." The unemployment rate could be bad, too. 2) Dow down around 350 points today. At this rate, the Dow and S&P 500 could quickly hit their yearly lows from mid-July...
  10. J

    Darvas methods?

    I think we should give Darvas due credit, along with the "Market Wizard" traders. They found methods that worked during their day, risked their capital and fully exploited their edges. In hindsight, we can say "those were the good ol' days, when simple trend-following and breakouts worked."...
  11. J

    The Bear Market is Over

    Do you have a friend named Stcktrder-something-or-other? One more up day (at the close) and we have a beautiful shorting opportunity. Even if you're right, there will be a retest of the low.
  12. J

    Democrats to blame for oil prices?

    Yep, at least a good bit of it. He's spot on about Dems blocking efforts to drill, though many Republicrats haven't been much better. And, having spent a little time in the nuclear industry, I can attest to the River Bend debacle personally. More nuclear plants + more drilling means the...
  13. J

    wow, oil inventories down 8.8M

    True, at least for the short-term. I'm still not sure what to think re: these longer-term debates on "oil is way overpriced in a speculative bubble" vs. "demand for oil really does justify these prices." However, I'm pretty convinced there is something of an excessive premium or...
  14. J

    wow, oil inventories down 8.8M

    Patently false. Show me a mutli-year rally that's taken place since 1973 (when the age of OPEC and oil woes began). It's no coincidence that the "cheap oil" years of the early 80s to late 90s comprised the biggest stock bull run in history...or the lackluster performance of stocks in the 70s...
  15. J

    wow, oil inventories down 8.8M

    Europe is much different (as is most of Asia and other parts of the world). The availability of public transportation or good ol' walking/bicycling is an option for many. In the U.S., many live 20+ miles from their workplace. Public transportation isn't available, and it would take a huge...
  16. J

    Anyone ever buy a REAL trading system???

    Right. Let's say you have a day job, but have developed a solid, robust system that's done well in backtesting and real-time/out-of-sample testing. It's not a Holy Grail. It goes through drawdowns, and generates anywhere from 20 to 50% per annum--not "double your money every month" or other...
  17. J

    Final Hour: Sell-off Or Surge?

    12,100 for the Dow 1380 for S&P 500 2350 for Nasdaq Composite I've been watching these support levels most of the day, and the shorts can't seem to get past them. If these levels hold the final 30 mins, then I'd say the bulls have had a small victory (even if the Dow is the only index in...
  18. J

    Why isn't anyone discussing what is going on?

    Hmmm...Well, it appears a recovery (once again) is under way. The fact is that we haven't had a 10% drawdown in the major indices since March 2003. http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/060124/13831.html?.v=1 Things have been a little too calm, methinks. For position-trading and longer-term...
  19. J

    Chronicles of an Idiot

    Is anyone else still trading this system/style? It looks very similar (and pre-dates) a commercial system that sells for $300-500 range...
  20. J

    Different triple MAs?

    Thanks for the link. I plotted the system for some currency pairs, and it looks promising. As you suggested, you can get better entries (though they may be a little more aggressive) by employing candle reversals or other price action techniques (see below) to play the retracements...
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