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Total market cap over GDP currently at 143.5% (Sep 30 2007 = 110%, Mar 30 2000 = 148%)

Basically never going to - partially - close the gap?!

But yet Gold is above 1500 again..

Apparently there's a relationship between 'value' and 'low'; Investors buy value when fondamentals are low.

https://thereformedbroker.com/2019/10/21/global-stocks-starting-to-inflect-higher/ "[...] stocks are acting better than current sentiment about the global economy might imply. If you’re more focused on the headlines than on price itself, you may have been missing this trend."

One can read "true market irrationality" as volatility (-1% +1% -1% etc..) PS: A lot has been said about the 2s10s yield curve inversion and un-inversion; while it's not a great help to forecast absolute market direction, it indeed predicts a lot more equity market volatility.

The US stock market returns from the dividends, currently yielding at 1.82% while US 10Y is at 1.80%

https://blairbellecurve.com/sitting-on-the-sidelines/ "Waiting for a market correction creates a false sense of security. If the market continues to go up, there will be regret and further hesitation to invest. If the market goes down, there will be paralyzing fear and hesitation to invest...

Unless there is a strong recovery in the underlying economy: https://www.man.com/maninstitute/at-the-mini-cycle-low Are We Missing Anything? So, having dismissed the two current market concerns, we look again to our cycle indicators to see if we are missing anything. Our Cycle Tracker is not...

Following are their P/E(Trailing) ratios: MSFT 29.43 - AAPL 20.44 - AMZN 75.08 - FB 32.26 - GOOGL 25.30 - NFLX 118.10 Nasdaq’s P/E is a whopping 30.33 – valuations that are plausible when economic expansion is driving growth..

Anyway volatility remains high on a monthly basis; Nasdaq 100 has had a 500 points true range on average over the past 6 months thus november as well might be the same.

"The primary effect, the apparent one, is always the myth. That's the temporary effect that occurs when we treat the symptom instead of the cause. The secondary effect, the longer-term, more gradual one, is what becomes, more and more, the actual reality [...] In markets, longs push up markets...

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/citigroup.pdf Citigroup Economic Surprise Index: 13.6

https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php **The Stock Market is Significantly Overvalued. Based on historical ratio of total market cap over GDP (currently at 141.6%), it is likely to return -1.9% a year from this level of valuation, including dividends.**

So this is basically short sellers covering thei positions and driving the market up.

https://www.ccn.com/billionaire-warren-buffett-predicting-a-stock-market-crash/ https://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php

So here we are a touch away from 3000. Yet, today was a gap opening and I believe next week there should be a downward move as the market has been in a trading range recently. According to wave theories a downward cycle should have its peak in the first quarter and this is what we are getting...

https://www.man.com/maninstitute/gold-mercury-for-the-financial-system

gold

My view based on 16-32-64-128 SMAs and 128,16 + 64,16 Price Oscillators on the 1 hour chart is that the medium term cycle started aug 23rd ended oct 3rd so we might be in a new cycle. We will have conformation when 16 above 64. No way to tell if this upcoming cycle will be bullish. Yet, its...