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http://www.sinletter.com/merger-arbitrage/ http://www.mergerinvesting.com/pendingmergers You have to research every situation individually. Don't just jump in blindly because you see a 15% annualized yield.

True, but lets not forget people said that in 2010 when you'd read hyperinflation warnings everywhere and every idiot was touting hard assets as the place to be. That like always was horrific advice from "advisors" as inflation was a ghost they'd pull out of the closet all the time. Now look at...

Im long ALTR but to say there's no risk is naive. I've owned many dozens of merger arb plays and every once in a while you get mauled for 20-30% when a deal implodes.

The entire "buy commodities and hard assets" hype has been one giant sham.

You have to be careful with just looking at capital gains tax. Many countries such as Switzerland and Netherlands classify short-term trading as regular income, not capital gains.

EUREX not open for another hour, but early indications around 11050, so down about 3-3.5%

This is a rhetorical question right?

Interesting thread. CAPE10 is a solid approach IMO, but don't put all eggs in one basket. I prefer buying the 10 cheapest markets worldwide instead of just one. At current prices, Greece will soon drop out out the top 10 cheapest markets because corporate earnings have cratered post 2008 and the...

We are not even talking about performance, Surf. We're talking about the growth or demise of a class of funds. The trendfollowing industry now manages about twice the money it managed in 2004 -- the year Niederhoffer predicted its demise. You honestly think 11 years is a tad early? How long do...

You don't find it ironic that the industry Niederhoffer predicted would "disappear because its basic approach is flawed" 11 years ago is still here and managing 100's of billions. And it's Niederhoffer who disappeared instead as he was flushed out of the markets. Wouldn't you call that poetic...

You ran your mouth proclaiming you "tested everything, but no mechanically testable trend following strategy worked". Then, when put to the point, you reveal you insist on rapid-fire, short term, high turnover systems and you never tested anything else. You fit right in on ET. Clueless clown...

In a 2004 interview Niederhoffer predicted all the big trendfollowing funds (Dunn, AHL, Winton, Bluetrend) would blow up or "disappear" eventually. Because "their approach to trading is based on a fundamental misconception" -- according to Victor. Fast forward 11 years and it turns out...

LOL Another clown exposed.

Why do you insist on trading momentum on shorter time periods? I use 6-12 month time frames on my signals and I can't believe you can't find anything worthwhile. Academia is full of working momentum based systems that you can backtest mechanically. Heck there is R code readily available to test...

That of course is complete nonsense. There is substantial evidence for strong (weak) stocks to remain strong (weak). http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=299107 "There is substantial evidence that indicates that stocks that perform the best (worst) over a three- to 12-month...

That's the symptoms of a compulsive gambler. Niederhoffer viewed the markets as a giant casino, and he used statistical edges that allowed him to outplay the dealer. Or so he thought.

What do you mean? Momentum profits (trendfollowing) has been studied in academic studies for decades and has been found to return favorable risk adjusted profits over the last 100 years across all liquid markets, not just stocks. What is momentum trading inferior to exactly?

'Greater odds of adancing' means nothing. You're confusing probability with expectancy, typical beginner mistake. Hint: If probability was all that mattered then we could all get rich selling options because 90% of them expire worthless.

That's like saying running a restaurant chain is an inferior way of making money (compared to running a business in another industry). Yes that is how dumb your argument is. Your statement is very revealing as you are biased to typical black and white thinking. 'my methodology is best, all...

Anyone remember VN's posts on his dailyspeculations blog around 2006 and 2007? He posted weekly articles making fun of the perma bears, how bear markets only happen rarely, how the optimists always win, how history teaches us to buy after 3 consecutive down days. He's gloating, he loves to...