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ECRI on future inflation growth and the problems of central banks being behind the curve: http://www.businesscycle.com/news/press/2137/ A couple of interesting related slides here: http://www.businesscycle.com/reuters/news/2011/april/pdf/1zf3651leanqc00.pdf ECRI's black box model indicated...

If the author is looking at price indices? What he ought to be looking at are total returns, adjusted for inflation. 1. US stocks, adjusted for dividends and inflation, took less than 10 years to recoup the losses since the 1929 peak. 2. "have almost always risen over a 5 year period" =...

Incorrect. Berkshire Hathaway outperformed the SP500 by 75% over the last 10 years. Hardly "same as the rest of the market".

"Stops are for wimps" --Gordon Gecko

Which is a great thing if you have a trade deficit, not so much when you're running a surplus.

"Prudent speculators never argue with the tape. Markets are never wrong, opinions are." --Jesse Livmore "At the end of the day, your job is to buy what goes up and to sell what goes down." --Paul Tudor Jones "It can be very expensive to try to convince the markets you are right." --Ed Seykota

Future cash flow is dynamic, not static. It can go up and down with unemployment or an improvement/deterioration of the neighborhood. A number of investors went bankrupt buying up rental real estate in the initial drop in 1930. They planned to keep renting units out just to see one tenant...

Not that those things are preconditions for Silver to drop. Hundreds of markets in history have been cut in half without a mass retail investor participation and mania.

He waved a bill at them? Big deal.

Ride it up and then ride it down.

What makes you think wealth is easier to come by in another nation? You need to provide details why you believe you can not pursue wealth in the US in order for people to understand your circumstances and provide alternatives.

If you run a corporate account you can have a master account and multiple sub-accounts (e.g. one per strategy). You can review seperate activity or PnL statements for every account. Margin is calculated on an aggregate account basis, a sub-account won't get liquidated if it is in a margin...

The left-skewed return profile is quite typical for short-volatility strategies. As long as investors understand what they're getting themselves into I don't see a problem with this fund in particular. It's the strategy causing the return-profile, not the specific fund.

Why do you reply if you didn't take the time digesting my post. Where did I say it was feasible to achieve high returns without taking large risks? Once again: The average wealthy person (that I know anyways) would rarely if ever be interested in a high risk/high reward type investment...

No rich person I know would ever in their wildest dream consider the risk of a 50% loss for a 100% gain. You have a completely wrong impression of the risk tolerance of an average wealthy individual.

Use the power of word of mouth. Try to get friends and family to invest first. Give them favorable terms (very low fees). If you double or triple their capital over a coupe of years they will spread the word and new money will come in. Your primary driver for growing your assets under...

You are assuming a) a fluid market with no gap downs b) perfectly liquid market conditions where the liquidation of a position doesn't cause further deterioration of your own risk parameters, forcing you to liquidate more Treating stop prices on all positions as a guarantee for a certain...

Exactly. And timing has absolutely nothing to do with a correct or incorrect macro analysis on the Japanese debt situation. You could be correct in an economic sense and the market still proves you wrong. That was the point I was making.

Apparently it was so absurd you didn't bother to read it properly. How did the trade pan out over a 10 year time period? It was a money pit. Analysis was correct, trade turned out to be a terrible loser.

I agree the fundamentals aren't good for Japan but how does being convinced of that give you an edge trading it? The fundamentals aren't good since at least 1998 and still no cigar. I am not in the camp of those saying Japan won't blow up at just because it held up until today. Yes, there...