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In this thread I have noticed you mention "trend following offers no edge in entry" about half a dozen times. That statement alone disqualifies you. Not because your statement is wrong, but simply because it is irrelevant. Trend following has very little to do with waiting for a trend to...

Then maybe you should consider refraining from making allegations that you are unable to substantiate with fact.

You said there was "proof". Where is it? Why call on others to help you defend your own claims? Again I am asking you to post proof of "consistently huge drawdowns" suffered by the big funds as you claimed. Certainly that is not too much to ask considering you claimed you studied all of...

So you're making a claim, get called on it and can't substantiate it.

Can you name three big trendfollowing funds that consistently suffer huge drawdowns? And if so, how do those drawdowns compare to widely used equity or commodity benchmark indexes?

The above statements just reveal that you are 100% clueless.

3% is far from "betting heavily".

The BPP to my knowledge tracks brick & mortar products and ignores prices for services. It's interesting data, but at times it can be as misleading a proxy for "real inflation" as commodity price indices can be.

And I am so so tired of people bashing the Fed (and BOE) as a bunch of clueless ivory-tower academics with no grasp of the real world while praising the ECB. When in reality one CB is as smart or clueless as the other.

The only one holding erroneous beliefs is you. How much of the trillions in global risk capital is invested in market-neutral strategies? A tiny fraction. The large majority of the successful traders in history made their fortunes with large directional bets with skewed risk/reward ratios...

Little entertaining blast from the past here. The ECB's Axel Weber talking to Liesman at Jacksonhole 2008 lecturing Liesman on the ECB's glorious inflation fight... approx. three weeks before Lehman went belly up: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l2uBylcBEEo

Spot on. George Soros on Niederhoffer and surfing small ripples and big waves:

10y BE rate now touching (or even breaking through) the 2008 commodity peak level: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGGBE10:IND If the Fed was concerned that inflation expectations up until recently were too low then they can tap themselves on the shoulder.

You said the same thing in 2005/6: "New investors in trend following funds will get creamed in the next couple of years". Guess what? You were wrong. All the big trendfollowing funds cleaned up 2006 to 2011, net of fees. Is the truth so hard to admit?

That's why you i) use position sizing and risk management/stops ii) shouldn't be discouraged from re-entering the trade multiple times, potentially resulting in consecutive (small) losses iii) constantly verify if your underlying thesis is correct. If so, repeat from i)

Even if the hedge fund returns were great, the large majority of hedge funds are highly unsuitable for parking excess cash due to monthly/quarterly liquidity, lock-up periods, liquidity gates and early redemption fees. Hypothetically, if there was an equity market (or FF rates, or...

The question though is: How well would the average retail investor do in actual reality following that basic 60/40 strategy. Will he not deviate from the game-plan, usually at the wrong times, selling in panic and buying at the peak of the mania? The real eye opener would be a comparison of...

A 27 year period of 0% total returns, adjusted for dividends and inflation is not an upward slope.

You're terribly wrong. The top hedge funds made their investors fortunes, and that is after fees. See: http://www.capitalholdings.com/en/Great%20Money%20Managers%20-%20Latest%20Research.pdf The top 10 hedge fund managers have earned more than $153bn for their investors since they were...

You assume markets are always perfectly reflecting fundamentals. They're not. Efficient market hypothesis assumes they do and obviously that is a fallacy. Even if just hypothetically the "fair value" (whatever your definition of that may be) for EURUSD was at say 1.20. Who is to say we can't...