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yes, there will be much more layoffs but this has nothing to do with stock prices. In all recessions stock prices begin to go up while employment is still getting worse.

the oil peaks 1980 and 1990 (Iraq) where around 40. There might be some support around this area if you look at a long term chart. I think Oil for 40 Dollar is a good long term investment (I would rather hold this long term thán Bonds or Cash) but its difficult to invest in Oil because of the...

wait until the trend really changes seems a good option. Even if you don't get the yield low there is plenty of money to be made. People are flying into safety (Bonds) now. But they should not feel safe. Risc factor 1 is the foreign holdings of threasuries in the range of 1 trillion US)...

no, not correct. ZB Future has factored in 6% yielding 30years (if yield would be 6%, ZB would roughly be 100). Its the same with the value of the Threasuries. They will also not go to infinity if the yield reaches zero, they would trade at an value that reflects the years outstanding...

I am already short ZB and wanted to double the position every 0.25% in further yield drop. Good thing actually was that its easy to calculate maximum drawdown because yield cannot go below zero. However the future is loosing nearly one handle (1000$) per 3 months because of its backwardation...

OK, thanks. This means if you want to short 30y thresuries for the long run, you will take a loss of around 4000 US-Dollar per ZB contract per year if yield stays exactly the same.

I have a simple question regarding the ZB future. If you assume that the 30y yield stays the same, what will happen to a certain ZB contract ? thanks !

there seems a little contradiction there. How often have you been in China ?

that is a lame excuse for these people because you can find a lot of charts like stock market versus GDP or unemployment etc. in the internet within minutes if you are willing to do some homework. In nearly every recession / depression the stock market bottoms while the economy is still...

yes, you already warned when dow was 500 points lower than now. Problem is that knowing where the economy goes and understanding the economic environment and how bad it really is (I believe the unemployment figures next Friday will be awfull) does not make you any money. It does not count what...

all I can say is HAHAAHHAHAHHHHAAAAAHHAHAHA to your math skills. You need around 5.2% per day to turn 2500 into a million in 118 trading days. But nothing surprises me any more here on ET.

I don't think volume will be good enough on that. Spreads, stop running and volume is already difficult for me if I trade Fdax and it will be even worse with the smaller contract because I assume they will hedge with Fdax. I would rather go with the ESTX50 which is not Dax of course but has...

in a shorter timeframe it looks like the ZB needs another test of its 130 panic spice and I would not surprised if it gets even higher. So for short term trading I would not short it now. But I have different approaches in different time frames.

someone already answered it. Its US-Bonds (30 years are the biggest of all bubbles). You are right that dept has reached the point of no return so in the future Bonds will go to near zero. Its however difficult to time eaxctly when this will happen and when will be the best time to short...

the problem in US is not only gouvernment debt but private dept situation now. Japanese people went into the crisis with lots of savings but USA people today have negative savings since years, not good.

Makloda: Great Work ! Thanks for giving me back some hope regarding the quality of ET-Forum.

nice to see how sure you are about the outcome of this very unique event. People have to understand that Cash (US-Dollars) is just another asset class. You always have the choice between different asset classes and if I have to decide between Cash or US-Bonds and Stocks I would rather choose...

This man has been right about the crisis and the failure of Alan Greenspan and I want to share this remarkable interview I found, its really worth watching. http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid370322720?bclid=1641837935&bctid=3012738001 for the first time he thinks stocks are...

in the beginning of the bear market most people buy the dips and think what a great opportunity to get long and get hurt. At the end of a bear market most people think every rally attempt is a great short opportunity and get hurt. Where are we now ? I don't know but I think some more people...