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I am lost today. Not seen such strange Dax behaviour in weeks. Confused, not trading any more today. However, my ZB long gave nice profits now after days and days of waiting.

there was a strong divergence between ESTX and ES compared to Dax which strongly lagged behind. Normaly such divergences continue, but not in this case as Dax released this to upside. It was clearly not a good trade, but you never know that in advance.

added short 8028 Still hedged first short with 2 ES long, but will soon cover hedge.

I also went long Dax yesterday evening but look what dax makes out of ES+8 points. Dax does not want up, its that simple. If it would like to go up it would be up 50 points now. Better go short any time now, can hedge with ES long. Phil

Dax fell nearly 40 points like a stone. The reversal at 8120 was very harsh and came seconds before the ES reversed (slightly). The reason why Dax changed behaviour so much within seconds can only be that a larger trader have been caught with pants down by other groups and they ran for...

one minute ago a perfect short signal a divergence between Dax and ES. Dax strength ove now.

the thing is "don't short here". It can work, but the chance is high you burn your greedy fingers. Tapereading its obvious that a lot of people are still on the wrong side and have to cover before Dax close. So unless there is a big reversal in ES you have to buy the Dax dips here and not...

by the way, look at the reversal in ZB. Its bottoming. I went long gbl and ZB. Phil

Hi JSSPMK, I have such charts running here, where I substract Dax from ES with a certain multiplier applied to ES which reflects the average volatility which is higher in Dax then ES anyway all the time. Its a good indicator to see if something behaves odd. I don't have a unite graph for...

scaled out some now 55-60. The important things to observe is if you see something "strange". Usually people like to trade the "normal" things so today that would have been to sell because of the very bad distribution day in ES, and indeed this was very very bad in ES, high volume selling after...

I went long 8042. I have only few times seen such strong signals of instituionals collecting Fdaxs while small people selling into the bid.

I am little surprised that Dax is not reacting more strongly to ES drop. There seem to be some strenght against ES building. There could be a surprising move up soon.

the fact that it has been sold into quite heavy speaks for itselve, this market is vulnerable. To many longs now waiting for the old Dax high and may be very dissapointed if Dax fails here so watch out for a possible very heavy drop - but wait for confirmation. FED minutes to be published...

yes, that was a nice Hammer in 5m and also 2 little Hammers in 1m which shows that they only took stops below the LOD. Good long sign. However I believe its only short term and good for few points

you are completely right. One might assume, that sometimes the tail swings the dog... I think the truth is that sometimes in ES in low volume environment before they start a buy program or a small fake move they begin to collect some Fdax positions for some aditional gain. For example if ES is...

Hi JSSPMK, interesting topic. I am also trading mainly dax. What indicators do you use (Histogram ?, MACD?) I use no indicators, I always look for "strange" behaviour. Like for example showing relativ strength against ES, which often means a lot of traders may soon be on wrong side if ES...

I was in California for 3 weeks now and was surprised how much less you get for the Dollar compared to 15 years ago. The feeled inflation for me (German) in USA is much higher than the official numbers tell. So I am not surprised any more the Euro is at 1.4 level right now. I also think it...

no, there is also a big chance of a 0.5% cut. 42% of leading bankers think it will be 0.5%. 50% think 0.25% and 8% think 0.75%. None of them think its possible the FED will do nothing.

here is the logarithmic display

Hello, I would like to have some opinions from other traders who make money and have some statistics on their trading. I have been trading futures since 1998 for 2 years with about break even, stopped because my business took to much time and resumed 2003. I am trading at IB and I trade...