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There is also a feedback loop that I'm not seeing people talk about. Companies are beating earnings estimates but missing revenues estimates through cost cutting, layoffs, trimming down the corporate 'fat'. But this is a net losers game when it happens in a macro level, your 'cost saving' is...

With regards to positive feedback loops(self-fulfilling prophecies or 'reflexive' situations), yes the market can create its own reality and the economy will perform better due the green shoots madness(I supposed its not madness anymore if everybody starts to do it), in early mar I stated in...

I'm back from vacation and I see the SP500 reached 980. Somewhat surprising but I also see the S&P website shows that so far Q2 is on track to earn $14 in operating earnings($10 was earned in Q1), this might translate into $60(the keyword is might) for full 2009. $60 x 15 is 900 The S&P...

You need to go further out in the IR risk curve and chase yield in treasury bonds(not tbills). Maturity is key, anything more than 10y is probably too risky

The administration deserves credit for being able to pass the largest fiscal package in the US peace time history right after a terrible polical problem with bank bailouts yet Krugman had the nerve to complain how that was not big enough, now there is a man who wont stop till his visions of a...

He also said that exports are very important in recoveries of financial crisis, will it be the Dollar index the next focus for their 'stimulus packages'?

I find it more likely they wont buy foreign exchange to devalue the dollar, it should be a combination of treasuries, agency paper, muni bonds, etc. This however will depend on how strong the deflation on the core CPI and core PCE becomes. It does looks likely the Fed purchase program will...

Rosenberg is speculating the next US policy could be to weaken the USD. If you read bernanke's writings he says this is desirable as a way to counter deflation, the central bank would print money and buy foreign exchange till prices rose, he congratulated FDR for devaluing the dollar against...

The 'price action' folks says price is everything and news(and therefore fundamentals) dont matter, I bet some people scorn at my idea that a 1% GDP growth in 2010 along with 11% unemployment(Which I dont believe the evidence shows to be currently priced in by market participants) could lead...

Declines in fed futures has been limited, my long XLF has helped offset some losses in short positions as a result I havent been signficiantly impacted by the resurgence in optimism. This green shoot rally makes John McClane looks like an aids patient, however I still firmly believe a period of...

I just noticed a good point made by a blogger, those who are betting on a V shapped recovery(like the Fed with their 2010/2011 GDP projections) are essentially making a call on the savings rate. Essentially they think its going back to 0%, that looks highly unlikely Sure there were strong...

The green horticulturists will spin anything

What you rather have, inflation or nazis running your country. Thats my bottom line. Sure, raise taxes and borrow but if there are problems with those, run the printing press, take away the independence of the central bank and print at will. However austrians cant get themselves to admit this...

Therefore allows the government do choose the least damaging path by inflating prices instead of allowing widespread destruction of human life and capital goods. The printing press can be an instrument of higher living standards, at least on a relative/comparative basis

We get it, you dont think TF works

People can 'support' the war and yet not be willing to pay for it, no one likes to be taxed

What if tea parties, offshore evasion, massive unemployment happens?The laffer curve exists when you are talking about extremes, at a 90% income tax rate I bet you the government wont be raising much in tax

Lets say Ron Paul is president and there is a war in US soil, the treasury market tanks a lot and treasury actions start to fail by the leaps and bounds. How is he going to raise funds to pay for the war?Or are they cowards and dont want to admit they will have to run the printing press given...

That's a BS complaint, credit card fees affect virtually ALL retailers, therefore they ALL raise prices to reflect fees, the ones that dont have their margins cut in exchange for bigger volume. There is no net competitive disvantage, if you stop accepting cards in your business some people wont...