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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    "Yen Trades Near 7-Week High on Banking Concern, Asia Stock Drop " http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aCctlcQtMm10 "The yen traded near a seven-week high against the euro on concern U.S. financial institutions will incur more losses and as regional shares fell" It is...
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    US commercial real estate - simply awful

    http://www.contraryinvestor.com/mo.htm
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    JPM 46.51 PE, Jamie Dimon is defying gravity

    14 forward PE, 46 trailling. Stock is trading in a huge gamble 2010 will be a blockbuster year. The analysts estimates are probably filled with V shaped recovery hopes. Am I the only one who thinks JPM is totally overvalued? I guess I cant demand too much rationality from this stock, its the...
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    m22au, Good to see you back. Did you see the action today?A few things jumped out to me in the negative side -WFC rumor that they were raising capital -Rumor of a large bank failure XLF dropped 5.3% in these even in the face of a 53 ISM Mfg. The financial crisis look to be alive and...
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    Any traders from Brasil?

    He must be hanging around the eurodollar pit lately :D
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    Equities got smashed Whats even worse, price didnt just fail at the trendline, it failed after suceeding(it put a 1-2-3 type rally). This is the so called 'porn' pattern popularized by former ET trader Anekdoten. Its the third test of a trendline that fails after temporarily suceeding...
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    Wow, even though I was dead wrong on starting to buy my XLF puts two weeks ago, todays plunge made them recover most of their value. This is the dilema I referred to, if you wait for the trend to completely reverse the VIX will have soared already and you dont get a good deal. Assuming ES...
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    Any traders from Brasil?

    Sao Paulo
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    Bill Gross outlook "1. Global policy rates will remain low for extended periods of time. 2. The extent and duration of quantitative easing, term financing and fiscal stimulation efforts are keys to future investment returns across a multitude of asset categories, both domestically and...
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    Don't want to spread hearsay, but Wells Fargo and put volume?

    Charlie Munger is trying to save BRKB some money
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    No liquidity in 2010 options of ZN and ZB(10y and 30y). That leaves only IEF and TLT options but they dont seem a good bargain
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    Speaking of lack of buyers, a big green shoot and ES is getting crushed. ISM mfg quite likely rose due prices received dropping inducing new orders to respond, this national index doesnt report prices received but its what is happening in regional reports. Simply no inventory rebound was...
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    Outstanding article must read.

    This would not be important, the central bank can affect nominal levels on REAL terms the adjustment would occur regardless of money printing(your income could go up 1000x fold in a massive money printing but prices of rice only up 100x due bots planting rice like hell)
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    The Paulson statements after the failure with stuff like 'Moral hazzard is something I dont take lightly' 'I never thought LEH should get taxpayer money' are likely to be lies told just to calm the markets to make it seem "everything is under control, no need to panic". He was afraid of saying...
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    Here's why I dont believe Paulson and Bernanke 'allowed' Lehman to fail like is conventional wisdom -Bernanke wrote in his book that the failure of a large european(austrian IIRC) bank lead to a series of global runs in 1930 and he laid the blame on that incident the start of the global banking...
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    His statement doesnt seem accurate Since the secular fall in interest rates started in early 80's it has been true that yields dont bottom before the UR. Maybe I should be buying lotery calls on the 10yUST
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    Well turns out the best macro funds have the same trades on as I http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=174941 Clarium and Tudor are bearish in US stocks(Although it seems Clarium will express that view buying the USD, I have no idea why they would do that). Apparently...
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    Any traders from Brasil?

    I am
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    Here are the RBA futures and options http://futuresource.quote.com/quotes/quotes.jsp?s=IB-SFE%3D1&t=future%2Cindex%2Cforex Even though IB offers free data on the Sydney Futures Exchange I wasnt able to find the symbol for them. And I looked hard, if you know let me know
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    The Credit Crisis Financial Stocks Short Journal

    I've found the quotes at http://futuresource.quote.com/quotes/options.jsp?s=L%20Z0-EIR&r=L-EIR the red icon gets the options for each contract. They seem to be offering a bit better odds then eurodollars however I'm sure thats enough for me to give them a shot -I know much less about the UK...
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