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And also it could lead to tax fraud. There is a mechanism in Switzerland for lending to yourself legally... :) Ninna

Well randomness isn't about perception... You measure it. :) On any time frame, 10 sec to 1 month, when you normalize prices by trading activity you get perfect randomness i.e. almost 100% Gaussian distribution of prices. It's an eye-opener :) Ninna

Your argument is right, your conclusions are wrong. It is precisely because real people with real emotions interact that prices are (mostly) random. People have conflicting interests, they buy or sell at different times and for different reasons. The aggregated conflicting movements give...

No need for the two accounts. The strategy works but the edge is very small. You need to keep comissions and slippage under control. The strategy is almost impossible to trade for retail. You need to diversify accross a lot of assets (200+) and maximize capital utilization accross the...

In my experience it's more about risk than return... Ninna

You can't label a decision 'a mistake' based on the consequences in hindsight. If he takes a decision outside of his investment strategy or outside of the risk management policies and then earns $100M it is still a mistake... And if he makes a decision based on the strategy within the risk...

It sounds sensible to me... He cut the losses short. Ninna

Calculation based on my experience (Switzerland): Consistent performance with reasonable DDs around 20% p.a. is realistic. More isn't. Business fees (company, legal, IT, audit,..) about $100k/yr. Salary: I need at least $120k/yr to live here. So if I charge 1%/10% I need about $8M aum...

... No money management strategy can turn a loosing strategy into a winning one. It can at best break even (-> bet $0 i.e. don't play is the break-even strategy). And also Gambler's fallacy... Ninna

Well if you're going to bet on auto-correlation you have better ways of capturing the bias. Look at trailing stops for example. I can already tell you that the auto-correlation isn't strong enough on fast timeframes to offset the trading costs. It can work on longer timeframes though...

You are fooling yourself... By skewing the TP/SL ratio you skew your # win/# loss ratio but at the same time also your avg win size/avg loss size ratio. When you look at the profit factor your expectancy still remains the same (zero minus commissions). GS doesn't trade without an egde...

You should go golfing... :) Without an edge your trading has negative expectancy. To you trading will be similar to playing in a casion -> you'll loose money in the long run. You can still trade that way for the fun... but don't expect to make money (consitently) in the long run. Ninna

The main messages I got from his work was: 1. People in general have poor understanding of probabilities. 2. Too much credit is given to "skills" not enough to randomness. Both are extremely relevant to trading in my experience. Ninna

Yes, you need to factor in the costs. I assumed the property was an investment (not living in it). I'd be interested in knowing the following: if you had $1M to invest 40 yrs ago, what would have been the best risk-adjusted investment? Stocks (including dividends) or RE (including rents and...

You're forgetting the income from rents. People buying property here (Switzerland) usually expect property value to remain more or less the same and maybe appreciate a little. In the mean time they collect the rent with 1:5 leverage. I would be surprised, given the risks, if the average...

Just treat trading like a business... Hire managers to do the work. Delegate. Leverage (human resources). That way you combine the benefits of trading and owning a business. Ninna

Much better. Fact checking is worth every penny. Ninna

20M? Then you think wrong... And you can drop the religious propaganda. Japan is on a fault zone, earthquakes are expected there. It has nothing to do with any religion. Ninna

People in general have very poor perception of risk. This is for a large part because the human mind is very bad at thinking in terms of probability (and because of poor education). The attachement shows perception of risk vs actual probabilities (experts). Look at the first line in...

Negative impact of coal on society is much bigger than nuclear power. Risk is too be understood in terms of probabilities. Of course there can be large scale nuclear accidents... But how many sigmas are we talking of?.. Ninna