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Okay, here's the new and improved version: The real issue is whether or not future price can be determined on the basis of past price action.

Efficiency theory says that current market price accurately reflects all publicly available information. It seems obvious to me, considering the money at stake and the resources available to the bigger players.

If a minimum difference between present and approaching price could be calculated using public methods based on preceding price action, then, according to efficiency theory, that difference between current and predictable future price would close instantly, leaving no exploitable opportunity.

A curve is the slope of a slope. That's more slope.

Sufficient data to predict the extent of the reversal of a "trend" is not contained in the chart of the "trend" approaching failure point.

Sufficient data to predict the failure point of a "trend" is not contained in the chart of the "trend."

What is your definition of trend that does not include quantity of up or down direction over time?

What you're getting at is valid in general but does not apply to what price trend traders think they see on the chart. Just because price has drawn itself with a certain slope over a previous timeframe doesn't mean it has done so due to a tendency that will continue into the tradable future.

A system that could make a profit with random increments would do extremely well in the real world. Are you a billionaire yet?

Have a cigar.

That's a weak reply.

So? None of the above does anything to prove that future price is determined by past price action.

The logic of your statement is faulty. To say that future price action is not determined by past price action does not mean that future price action is caused by nothing at all and is random.

The question is not, "Do trends exist?" Of course they do, in your imagination when looking backward. The real issue is whether or not past price action determines future price action. That would be a "trend" before the fact, the only sort you can make money on.

Yes, but patrons must use the spittoon.

Someone better call the logic repairman. Delusions can be costly in this racket, no question about it.

In that case, give me an example of a publicly traded instrument whose price rises and falls but always returns to a constant middle value. And what is that value?

If it was public knowledge what the "smart money" is doing, then everyone would be doing it.

The tide oscillates to either side of a constant depth. When the water is going up, you may not know how far it will go, but there's always the reference line to which the level must return and then continue from there downward. Markets don't act like that.

That depends on how you use them. If you and 5,000 other traders and a few dozen black boxes are using the same approach, then good luck, you're going to need it.