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Use live tests with minimum size. That is the only way to know. All theories in trading are useless. Like what Mike Tyson said “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” Whatever issues discussed here have been discussed thousands of times before,

The ability to tell real breakouts is a true edge. Even so it’s not 100%, just a higher probability than randomness depending on how big the edge is. Obviously, more experience and time in the market will improve any edge. If you are patient enough you’ll see it clearly, though often too late...

For me winning is more stressful. I need to think about not turning a winner into a loser and when to get out for max profit. Losing is easy. Just get out!

You’re absolutely right! I feel my left brain is rational and logical, but my right brains just kills everything from my left brain with its emotions and impulses. It’s a battle within myself. Very hard to control the right brain. However, if the right brain is completely turned off we cannot...

With all the human cognitive and emotional biases it’s amazing any trader can be consistently profitable.

You can control how you scalp, such as fast and often or calm and a few in between. In other words, you can make it as intense as you want or as calm and laid back as you like. Find a style that suits you. You also don’t need to watch the market every minute. Opportunities are abundant.

Yes, I saw your response and agree I got out too late. I was trying to catch a big trend every time and often got stopped out instead. So now I only do scalping. If it’s a big trend it’ll be very obvious. Otherwise, 90% of the time you need to get out.

My tight stop is a few minutes. If price doesn’t go my way meaningfully within a few minutes I am out. No questions asked. I did miss some good winners but I dodged many more bad trades. It’s a good deal/tradeoff. It took me a long time to finally comprehend this. If I have to scratch too many...

I think the only way for trading longevity is to find an edge that you only need to trade a few times a day - a few real trades not counting all other trades that are scratched, hopefully no big losers with proper risk management.

To get a good feel of the market/chart you need the infamous 10,000 hrs of screen time. Nothing can substitute for doing the time.

Seriously, why do traders try to predict trend? It’s a fool’s game arising from human nature, i. e., the need to predict/know what’s going to happen. Just trade with the market. Either you’re right or you’re wrong and get out quickly. With enough experience and wrong decisions you’ll finally...

It’s way easier to say that cut loss early and ride winner than to actually do it. ;)

It’s a high probability trade with 2nd/3rd entry even though there may not be much left, but still better than caught in a trap.

Wow he was so stupid to report the break-in. Living a flamboyant lifestyle would never end well.

When market gets tricky 2nd or 3rd entry is safer than trying to catch the low or high. It requires a lot of patience and foregoing potential profits.

Probably shouldn’t trade in a volatile market anyway. My current rule is if I cannot comfortably put in a reasonable stop I won’t trade at all.

There are only 4 outcomes for every trade: large win, small win, small loss and large loss. The middle two are basically scratches and probably are the most common outcomes. Try to avoid the last outcome while wait for market giving you the first outcome.

OP’s idea/theory works for long term investment on indexes, but not for short term trading.

90% of stops will be hit sooner or later. You need to manage your position and get out before that happens, hopefully.

My experience has been 90% of stops will be hit sooner or later, except your stop is at the daily high/low or 2nd daily high/low. Even so I still programmed a hard stop in every trade knowing that it will get hit. It’s for my own protection and my plan is to exit before the stop is inevitably...