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  1. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Today's market talk (07/01/2022), his run continues with a big winner in an oil short trade, explained @ 02:33 minutes. You need to be able to understand german as Markus only comments in his native german language. Markus is a big bull on Natural Gas (NG1! on TradingView), currently trades @...
  2. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Markus Keil continues to rock, some amazing setups in his free daily market talks to be found on YouTube. Yesterday nailed the Nasdaq as he correctly identified 12,050 as an important "defense zone", below it the NDX would be a short candidate, and it was (fell below 11,700 points afterwards)...
  3. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Just an update on my "main man", David Tepper of Appaloosa Management, I posted a short interview with him in december 2021 (page 24 in this thread) ... he was 100% right, again - correctly anticipating rising rates and a strong stock market correction. It continues to pay off listening to him...
  4. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Let's shortly remember what it's all about. Finding a good entry for a long position, only go short in an US equity index if you've got an edge in market timing as the long term trend in US equities is long - investors who "short America" will lose their last shirt. Know that most investors who...
  5. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    For those of you who, like me, think the Nasdaq100 / NDX may continue to fall, I've found two indicators possibly of help when it comes to timing the long entry (then "buy and hold", preferably no market timing for known reasons). They are called "Super Trend V" and "volatility calibrated ATR"...
  6. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    For those of you capable in the german language, Markus Keil is an exceptionally gifted german daytrader / scalper, he offers mentoring / coaching for a full year, against a one-time fee of course, but his free videos offer some value, too. He updates his market views almost daily, this is...
  7. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Paul Tudor Jones II, one of the original market wizards (Volume I is a must read, was published in 1988) and a real all-star great in money management, has become very bearish for bonds and stocks, echoing David Tepper. Source / URL ...
  8. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Nassim Taleb of Anti-fragility fame has - I actually just now received what seems to be an "old hat" - changed his stripes on the value of Bitcoin (BTCUSD on Tradingview). He's now in the Warren Buffett camp of cryptocurrency nay-sayers and see its inner value at "zero" aka total wipeout for...
  9. janbillian

    The last 2 years were a greenhouse. Perfect weather and rich soil. Now what?

    @klattermusen : nobody knows for sure, however, I follow David Tepper of Appaloosa Management closely and became very cautious in September of last year (2021), he does not see any great asset classes and, while remaining vague with concrete price targets on the S&P 500, said going long would be...
  10. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Berkshire Hathaway has initiated a large position in the company HP Inc. (ISIN : US40434L1052), it now owns 10% of the outstanding shares. My take on this - HP Inc. has unrealized upward potential and its share price may rise to 80 US$ or even higher until 2030, which means a more than 100%...
  11. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    My price target for Tesla Inc. (TSLA) is 360 US$ for this year, I think the share price will, from its current level, shed another 50% or more. Current price is 782 US$.
  12. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    I think that the Tesla (TSLA) hype is now over and it's now back to "all future cash flows discounted to their present value", which means the shares could fall back to 500 US$ or even below that level this year (2022). The price has now broken its longterm uptrendline that began in 2020, the...
  13. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    He made minimum wage and then hit homerun in (swing)trading. Love this interview with Ryan Pierpoint, active management has paid off for him after some missteps in the beginning. Hope you'll enjoy it, too ->
  14. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    To dive deeper into what I wrote in my last post, it is highly unlikely that we'll ever see the Nasdaq 100 index below around 8,200 points again in the future, this level may be a "market bottom for decades". That's why I've updated the chart, timeframe is 2D (2 days per price) and two...
  15. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    My forecast for the Nasdaq 100 / NDX index for the next 2 to 3 years (2024 - 2025) is that the superboom in US equities is over for now. I do not see a dramatic loss like between early 2000 (top) and 10/2002 (bottom) where the NDX experienced a top-bottom loss of 78%, main reason is that we now...
  16. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    @padutrader, I would consider myself an investor, but if I had found a way to generate a dreamlike return of 5% or even more every month !, I'd scalp or daytrade without hesitation. 60% or more a year, who would pass on that !?
  17. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    For me, daytrading in the purest sense of the word - anticipating daily movements in security price and then place my bets, closing every position so that I'm flat when going to bed, would be no option. It's simply too expensive and low volatility phases can wipe you out.
  18. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    I think the case for possibly shorting Tesla (TSLA) shares has to be buried with Andrew Law, Caxton capital allocator in chief, having joined the bandwagon, he has built up a big position in the company last year, 2021, I estimate his average purchasing price must have been around 600 - 700 US$...
  19. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    If you have found a way to earn good money from price moves, that's great. Be aware though of the fact that David Tepper is a multibillionaire, it is very difficult for him to invest / profit from short term moves because he has to invest 70 million bucks or more (around 1% of his equity would...
  20. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    My temporary final thoughts :D on Apple (AAPL) and its valuation : It is America's most profitable company as of now, but it's valuation (now a slight notch below 3 trillion US$, yesterday's closing price was 182 US$) makes it difficult to argue that its share price still has an annual...
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