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  1. janbillian

    Can you beat the market?

    SteveAlexander, you've got a new follower on Twitter . @Abubble , if you define "the market" as simply the S&P 500 or DJIA30, US stocks averaged an annual gain of around 9.5 % incl. dividends reinvested in the last century. Most money managers failed and will continue to fail with their mission...
  2. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Jack Schwager in his own words after I asked him - he interviewed basically almost all money management legends - about his own performance as a trader / investor on Twitter : "Fair question. First, I'm not a Market Wizard. Second, I don't define myself as a trader; rather trading is a hobby...
  3. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    I'm a bull for the pair GBP vs USD, I think it may run up to1.3500 or even higher. I'd go long now, it currently trades @ 1.30549 . SL I'd place @ 1.2850 . The short setup I posted on page 15 in this FX pair would have to be closed with a small loss, it's not valid anymore obviously.
  4. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Reflecting upon the buy / long setup I posted (page 12, posting #112) in Natural Gas, I'd now move the profit target higher, from 3.60 US$ (page 15, posting #147) to 5.00 US$ ! Reason ? I think this may be a real long term uptrend, giving a speculator who entered the trade in august 2020 the...
  5. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    A reminder of why an average annual return of 20% is already elite territory and only the very few will be able to generate it .... I see it when I observe market moves in various underlyings and how rarely a clear trend develops that would earn multiple "R"s in Van Tharp lingo. Often, too...
  6. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    &
  7. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    It'll be a must read I'm sure. 11/03/2020 will be date when Volume 5 of the legendary "Market wizards" series hits the market, this time Jack Schwager interviewed largely unknown private traders who don't manage other people's money and have an outstanding track record. Jack in a recent...
  8. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    From a pure trendfollowing perspective, Lumber is in a clear downward trend. I'd go short, this futures contract (LBS1 on tradingview) now trades @ around 535 with the SL placed at 590 US$, profittarget 410 US$ .
  9. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    I'd now initiate a long position (in the last long setup, the stop loss would have been triggered) in Gold, it now trades @ 1,896 US$. The stop loss I would place @ 1,830 US$, price target 2,150 US$ .
  10. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    In Natural Gas, the SL fortunately would not have been triggered - I'd keep the Stop Loss @ 2.40 US$, but move up the profit target to 3.60 from 3.00 US$. The setup was posted on page 12 in this thread . Natural Gas now trades @ around 2.92 US$ . If the new profit target of 3.60 would be...
  11. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    To dive deeper into my line of thought regarding the future valuation of Apple, it's very simply based on the history of Warren Buffett as the world's #1 stock picker - he's turned 90 and won't be around much longer obviously, but I think if Warren purchases such a huge stake in a company even...
  12. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    I copy & paste this from my Facebook wall, Apple closed yesterday (09/21/2020) @ around 110 US$ -> "With Apple (AAPL) now showing surprising strength when most share / stock prices are in the red, I think this may be - hold your breath, ladies and gentlemen - the first company ever to reach a...
  13. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    On my native DAX/GER30, often quoted as the leading index for stocks, I'm now a big bear. This chart (timeframe monthly) show the most important lines, big resistance at around 13,550 points - I think we are now in a bear market and won't see new highs for the next two or even three years with...
  14. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Natural Gas ("NATURALGAS") - the bullish upward move may be over. I'd move up the stop loss to 2.40 US$. Currently trades @ 2.607 . Short interview excerpt with a highly regarded trading coach named Dr Gio Valiante, 04:21 - "The best investors in the world are right only 55% of the time".
  15. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    The palladium long setup I posted on 07-13-20, green circle in the chart (page 8 last post) would have been a winner (4R), but may there be more upside potential, it now trades @ 2,419 US$. I'd move up the profittarget to 2,700 US$. The SL I'd move to 2,150 US$ to lock in a profit.
  16. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    This could become a short trade with a good risk reward ratio. The currency pair is british pound vs greenback (GBPUSD), I think it might pull back to 1.2300 or even lower. It now trades @ 1.2988, I'd go short and place the stop loss @ 1.3150 .
  17. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    I'd now close the shortposition in the FX pair USDCAD, the way I interpret the chart, it could now have completed a trendreversal from short to long. Shows how quickly an opinion can change. This would have been a 450 pips winner, the pair now trades @ 1.3087. I would now initiate a long...
  18. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Wow, some brilliant minds comment here ! I posted the shortsetup on page 6, when the pair traded at 1.3550 . The new SL would lock in a profit of 380 pips if triggered.
  19. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    The short setup in USD CAD remains valid, I'd now move the SL to 1.3170 (it now trades @ 1.3010). Could this potentially be a 6R winner ? I of course don't know, but it may actually continue to drop to around 1.24 or even lower. New profittarget is 1.2400, a trendreversal would of course...
  20. janbillian

    ... but is it doable in reality ?

    Silver same situation as in Gold, a valid uptrend. It now trades @ around 27.93 US$ . I'd now go long with the stop loss placed @ 24.80 US$, profittarget would be 35 US$ .
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