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Option Writing Strategies for Extraordinary Returns, by David G. Funk, PH.D. Good book? ---------------------------------------------- http://www.fengshui-123.com

MajorUrsa, I have the same thought as you. Whether Mav explain or not does not matter. I doubt he will explain how he get the +expectancy, because he could not explain it better than you, and many others.

when mark to market your position every day, your position already resulted in profit and loss, and then you count only the profit of course the expectancy is positive. ---------------------------------------------------------- http://www.fengshui-123.com

Can completely discretionary traders every succeed? Yes, if and only if the fengshui is good:D -------------------------------------------------------------- http://www.fengshui-123.com

Everyday prices go up or down there must be reasons. So what, how many make money out of it? -------------------------------------------------- http://www.fengshui-123.com

If you can't answer it please allow other peoples to answer. This thread is not for you only. -------------------------------------------------------- http://www.fengshui-123.com

Beat the model also mean the model is not accurately reflect the actual market. In this case, it also mean if the model tell you there is zero expectation, it is not true in actual market. ----------------------------------------------------- http://www.fengshui-123.com

One more thing, if there is statistically positive expectation through whatever adjustment, every individual can be "casino" already. ------------------------------------------------------ http://www.fengshui-123.com

Mav, positive, zero, or negative expectation is a mathematical term, can you show us the mathematical proof how to get positive expectation from adjustment. Or some experts in financial engineering have proved it? do you mean you can any how(randomly) add or leg in...

Your "positive expectation" you gained actually is from your guessing ability, the particular type of adjustment you do is according to your guess of what the market is likely to do at that moment(though you don't use charts and TA). Am I right...

nobody willing to offer? ok, how about this, you give me data I give one book(PDF format) for exchange, any book you name it as long as I can find it. -------------------------------------------------------- http://www.fengshui-123.com

Mav, Put it simply, when you have the "free-trade", you forgot about the lossing trade, that is why you think you have positive expectation, you only count the winning trade of course it must be positive expectation.

I want to run some simulation on QQQQ options(including LEAPS), who can provide me the historical data chain, free of course:D -------------------------------------------------------- http://www.fengshui-123.com

Mav, first you must have profit before you can 'lock' your profit, so the question is what is the expectation of having the profit in the first place? ---------------------------------------------------- http://www.fengshui-123.com

here you are: Maverick74, do you actually creat "positive expecttion" through adjustment? ------------------------------------------------------- http://www.fengshui-123.com

Someone here said each strategy has zero or negative expectation, but by combining them through adjustment can bring the overall expectation to positive, this statement does not sound correct. Let say you get "free trade" through adjustment, in the first place, what is the expectation of getting...

this thread is excellent, bring it up:D

I have found out the significant difference between these two strategies, "selling near straddles and buying more strangles further out in time" does not hedge the vega in the front month

I see. Thanks. Then, is there any significant difference?

sorry, I am new here, don't quite understand, do you mean diagonal, for example, sell 1 front month stradle and buy 2 back month strangle, this is suitable for QQQ?