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  1. Sergio123

    Live Options Research Results

    Its the strategy for us poor men.
  2. Sergio123

    Active Option Traders, what is your preference?

    I have my positions grouped by ticker and sorted by DTE and I trade everything manually. But this thread gave me an idea. You could just model your book as database tables for each expiry and then just use SQL like statements to manage them. But that would be for hedge funds with a team of...
  3. Sergio123

    How do you fundamentally analyze the market?

    That's all good stuff. I consider it quantitative work. For the most part I just form a fundamental thesis and narrative to support the technicals. The quantitative and technicals come first. These are the Treasury Yields curves and the stock market. I fundamentally believe that there are...
  4. Sergio123

    Active Option Traders, what is your preference?

    I am usually whipping out 20-30 option trades per day when I am at home on the desktop app with all of my tools in front of me, but today I was flying and only made 1 trade on my brokers mobile website over the airplane's Wi-Fi. And it was management of an open position. I just couldn't get into...
  5. Sergio123

    Why are Wall Street stock analysts clueless?

    Hard to predict, but not necessarily a hard job if there are no bad repercussions for being wrong. Just feed the numbers to machine learning/AI to crunch the numbers to predict what the stock is worth.
  6. Sergio123

    Is classical Trend Following still alive?

    No. It seldom works out pefect. More often than not it ends up hovering around support and tying up funds, or keeps moving in the opposite direction and I end up DCAing and not getting redemption until a longtime later. That's just what you sign up for trying to time that big bounce.
  7. Sergio123

    Is classical Trend Following still alive?

    Just search on YouTube and you will find many traders scanning for breakouts and using them as entry triggers....so the answer is yes. But I dont.... I usually consider the breakout entry as coming in too late. I try to hit the reversals and position myself firmly in right before the breakouts...
  8. Sergio123

    Shorting Treasury Bonds

    I wouldn't make a 10 year loan out unless I get about 7%. I want about 10-12% interest rate to make a 20-30 yr loan. Until the Fed actually cuts, then I don't see how anything above a 6 month tbill is worth it.
  9. Sergio123

    Active Option Traders, what is your preference?

    I need a desktop. I need all of my statistics and scripts in front of me to trade them.
  10. Sergio123

    pattern recognition question

    When in doubt zoom out. It looks like a rounding bottom to me. But whatever the case. This tune is awesome:
  11. Sergio123

    Greater than 50-50, ability to predict range market?

    Yes. There is a way. You have to trade large enough in order to move the market. An army of math wizards would be able to predict the market if they are backed up by enough capital to move the markets.....But then again, so would an army of morons. But if you are not backed up by enough...
  12. Sergio123

    How do you fundamentally analyze the market?

    This is correct. They have already done that work and that is why QQQ, XLK, and VUG are all basically the same thing. No sense for everyone else to duplicate the efforts in the analysis. You should be spending your time creating technical strategies and indicators.
  13. Sergio123

    How do you fundamentally analyze the market?

    I trade index and commodity futures, ETFS, and options. I obtain cashflows from trading those products on a quantitative and technical basis. The indexes and sector ETFs are already cap weighted with the companies with the best cash flows.
  14. Sergio123

    How do you fundamentally analyze the market?

    Before my time, but I do not think that you are correct. It was the accounting and the financial statements that were the fraud. Go back and check the technicals. I think that they were indicating a problem.
  15. Sergio123

    Investors Are Hungry for Risk—and Holding Record Cash Sums

    Fund managers are hungry to keep pace with the market so that they can keep their job. I think that most people are fine with 5-6% risk free yield.
  16. Sergio123

    How do you fundamentally analyze the market?

    You can't obtain the relevant information in a timely manner. You are just not large enough to have a seat at the table and get the inside access. All that you can do is look at months old financial statements and apply some fundamental analysis that you learned from a basic accounting course...
  17. Sergio123

    Do "They" come after big positions?

    The probability of a 3 SD daily move in the Russell is .135%. If you get one of those, you should be trading that.
  18. Sergio123

    Do "They" come after big positions?

    I doubt it, but its possible if a lot of traders did the same thing. You would need to go back and do some forensics on the order books in RUT, and /RTY and try to figure out how and why price moved the way it did. Was there a re-balancing of the Russell going on at the same time? Well If so...
  19. Sergio123

    How do you fundamentally analyze the market?

    It depends on the scale of your investment. I am not sure there is a much value in spending a lot of time doing DCF analysis for most retail traders. More value in coding and scripting strategies based upon technical analysis, IMO. I also forgot to mention one of the most important...
  20. Sergio123

    How do you fundamentally analyze the market?

    I am more on the macro fundamentals. Interest rates, Reserve Balances, Central Bank policies, Geo-Politics. I don't pay much attention to company earnings announcements and forward guidance and top line and bottom line numbers or growth projections.
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