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  1. Sergio123

    Trading is like business, not math, physics, engineering or science

    Small businesses are going to be tough to scale and be profitable against the megacorp platforms. Most small businesses are just going to have their margins swept away by paying expenses to Amazon, Shopify, Google, Facebook, Uber eats, Walmart, Microsoft, Apple, etc. Or into Goog, Shop, Meta...
  2. Sergio123

    11 Bitcoin ETFs to trade from today

    But will it in the future? This should now give stocks more volatility and suppress crypto volatility. I am not sure when you are 'theoretically' supposed to move money from stocks, bonds, treasuries, and cash into these. I don't understand the point of these and the ridiculous bid/ask option...
  3. Sergio123

    11 Bitcoin ETFs to trade from today

    C'mon now.... BITO has been in inception for over two years and trades with an average of 17 million shares. Look at the $22 Put for example. I see 2.76/4.10.
  4. Sergio123

    11 Bitcoin ETFs to trade from today

    Do you know why all of the bid/ask spreads on the options are so wide?
  5. Sergio123

    Tom lee says 500k for bitcoin....tulip mania is just beautiful, isn't it??

    He says inflation at < 2% and Bitcoin to 500k. Where would the dollar index need to be if both of these became true? The predictions are useless without setting a target for the dollar. Intuitively, I do not believe that the math will work.
  6. Sergio123

    Trading options on the Euro Stoxx50 Index (SX5E)

    I doubt you find anything. Europe is done and enslaved to big tech and paying cloud rents. That's the reason why they don't have good trading markets.
  7. Sergio123

    support and resistance

    Call and put option pinning.
  8. Sergio123

    Traits of Elite Traders: What Sets Them Apart?

    Congrats to you, sir. You make money just keeping a simple approach. I like that. But dont you ever feel the need to want to challenge yourself and maximize your opportunuties? Have you done the analysis on how much you could've made using the same approach to RTY last week?
  9. Sergio123

    When selling a stock would you rebuy into another stock that has a buy signal yesterday or days ago?

    It would depend.....Do you think that your signal is lagging? If so, then I would work on work on the coding of the signal to look at other parameters. If I thought that the signal is working fine and as expected, then I would wait for it to confirm a buy signal.
  10. Sergio123

    Artificial Intelligence (AI) vs. Standard Indicators: Edge or Double-Edge

    Have you done any analysis of the average performance of funds at Renaissance which weren't the Medallion fund? How can just one fund outperform so much? They are closed to outside investors so it doesn't really matter anymore but I have reason to believe that ML was a marketing tool to attract...
  11. Sergio123

    Artificial Intelligence (AI) vs. Standard Indicators: Edge or Double-Edge

    I get it. If you are interested in applying AI technology to trading and it gives your life more meaning, then do it. I am still expanding my skill sets, but I prefer to focus on combining traditional TA indicators with regression and forecasting techniques to compensate for the lag effect of...
  12. Sergio123

    Using past data to model possible future price movement

    I don't think its that random. There are a few large firms who more or less dictate the price where the market trades. Check the institutional ownership on any stock out there and decide for yourself if it's very 'collective' or not.
  13. Sergio123

    Using past data to model possible future price movement

    F=MA could predict with a high probability that the apple was going to fall on his noggin. But running the same experiment over millions of trials in parallel universes at least one wind gust will swoop in and knock the apple off of its trajectory and that universe would not have F=MA formally...
  14. Sergio123

    2024 Stock Picks

    I am looking at KR's most recent angular momentums and it's looking alright. So at least there is that. It might be good as a rotation play.
  15. Sergio123

    Did you do better trading in 2023 or 2022?

    I took a beating in late July/August and wasn't bullish enough in late October a Most of us are amateurs just trading our own acvounts. Time and time again, .many professionals who take other people's money underperform the averages and collect a nice fee for it. Should they too all quit and...
  16. Sergio123

    Did you do better trading in 2023 or 2022?

    Overall 2023, but relative to the market, I did better in 2022.
  17. Sergio123

    Trading is gambling- Only if you make it gambling

    The alternatives are to store your cash under your mattress and gamble that you don't get robbed, or giving it to a fund manager to let them gamble with your money, or loan it to the Government. It's a matter of picking your poison.
  18. Sergio123

    2024 Stock Picks

    I like Krogers to buy my groceries at since it's much cheaper than Whole Foods and more convenient than Walmart. But the stock's range is too narrow for me. Do they pay a dividend? The O/B - O/S is 47 to 41 on the 1-Yr Daily and 53 to 38 on the 3 Year Weekly. It currently only has an I.V. of...
  19. Sergio123

    Wheat Futures Price Action

    The predicticator likes what it sees. It has upgraded the OB level to 689.54.
  20. Sergio123

    Trading is gambling- Only if you make it gambling

    Trading and gambling is solving math problems. In each case you need to consider how much money to wager or risk, and then at the bare minimum do a mental calculation on if it's worth doing the bet.
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