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In 2008 we initially thought the housing market was in deep trouble but the impacts to the broader economy was contained. Didn't realize that the housing markets were bigger than the dotcom

In the last two recessions (2001-2002, late 2007-2008), I remembered there were lot of confusions about whether US was in a recession, as there were lots of conflicting news. Often the GDB showed positive growths, only to be revised down several months later, first to slightly positive, then to...

Yes, every efforts have opportunity costs, but full time independent traders have more opportunity costs than full-time students (who gain knowledge) or full time workers in regular jobs (who get paid and gain work experience). If one has interests in trading, just gets a day job, save some...

The ruthless run up of sp500 in 2017 and this month just proved the old saying "better to be lucky than right".

The biggest risk for independent full-time traders is the opportunity cost, namely the loss of potential gains from other alternative efforts (going to schools, working in a regular job etc.).

There is a long list of people (e.g. Jesse Livermore, John Merriwether) who were profitable for many years, some even became legend, then somehow blew up.

How are those fat-tail risk management funds doing these days?

If your broker is public-traded, you can always check its stock price.

Would Interactive Brokers work in Canada? I have good experience with it in US.

The story about Bear Stearns collapsing is very good. There were actually well known people (Bill Miller etc.) bought into Bear Stearns when it tanked. Needless to say they ending up lossing their shirts.

The short side was probably too big for him. I am glad that in 2017 I reduced my shorts to barely above minimum.

While it's a good idea to plan for the next bear market, it is more difficult to short the market over a long time horizon, e.g. to hold your short for a month or so is quite dangerous for your net-worth. Most of the mutual funds (the biggest players) are long only investors and their mandate...

Systematic trading transforms a craft into a (pseudo)-science, so one can apply all kinds of scientific methods. Discretionary trading also allows people to experiment a strategy in live market condition, but it is slower, more costly and less comprehensive. The execution side of systematic...

Home owners, people in the coast states and those with student loans are the losers.

I only read part of the book, but I don't believe this is a cult. A cult asks everyone to blindly believe in and follow the leader, which is not the case with BW, which encourages the employees to criticize the leaders. Many of the principles have merits on their own. On the other hand, BW...

A computer is both decisive and quick.

The latest accuser actually has an evidence-Moore's signature in her yearbook. So this proves that Moore knew her, even though he claimed otherwise.

There is a soft kind of limit on how fast the markets can grow in the next ten years. If the US GDP grows at 3.5% and the stock markets grows at 7% per year, then in 2027 then the market capitalization to GDP ratio is about 200%. In the height of stock bubble in 2000 this ratio was 145%. If...

A short update: YTD about 11.5%, though 2016 was a bad year, with only 2.5% gain. The majority of strategies are performing reasonably. In fact if I had made no change to the strategies from 2013 when I started trading, the performance would have been the same or better for the past two years...

I also saw the news from Bloomberg on Man seemly success story of applying machine learning to trading and was wondering about it.