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Rest and vest. But ya gotta work your butt off to get that opportunity. lol.

Places like Interactive Brokers will not tell you their formula for this. I've asked. It's complex and probably changes over time. Your margin requirements are not likely as stringent since you are going both long and short compared to being all long or all short. The calculation also...

Winning more than 50% of your trades is quite easy. Just take profits fast and set stops really low. Mission accomplished. But you won't make money if that's your only strategy. My point is to stop thinking a 50% win rate is somehow the measure of success. It's not. Growing your account...

Changing the parameters, data, time periods, etc. that you are attempting to fit a curve to won't impact your overfitting problem. I've only found one solution to this problem and that is to understand why the algorithm you have created does what it does. It's not enough to say that buying IBM...

What sort of time frames are you looking at before they reverse? We've been in quite a bull market for the past two years so during that time your statement is statistically true over pretty much any sized window.

That is a bad assumption. But in the big picture money flows from retail to institutional and not the other way around. There's tons of opportunity for a retail trader to be consistently profitable, however.

My point is that there are smart traders, such as Ren Tech, and there are dumb traders, such as most retail speculators. Don't try and take money from Ren Tech. You will lose. Much easier to buy what the retail herd is just starting to jump into and then getting out when they are at max...

Most people fall into the category of a fundamentals trader or a quantitative trader. Make sure you know what camp you are in with each trade. I'm almost entirely a quantitative trader but will sometimes buy fundamentals, internet rumor, etc. as a swing trade. Most of the time I don't even...

Everyone has an opinion or a niche when it comes to trading. So here's mine: Trade volatility and don't attempt to compete with institutions. That leaves you with small companies jumping in the premarket hours on news. Trade patterns on the way up. Get out. Repeat the next morning. This...

The fed controls this soft landing or hard crash with interest rates. Anyone predicting a market outcome in the next 2 years is predicting what the fed will do. That's entirely political. They'll react to the screams of the masses like they always have. When you stop complaining about...

Just curious why you are looking for "the formula" instead of just abstracting from the raw trade data what you want. I can think of several ways you could calculate something that would fit the words you are using.

The correct trade is always unpopular. If most people thought this was the bottom we'd be way up already. The confident pessimism by many is encouraging.

The better question is: What outlier activity did you perform? Fraud detection these days frequently uses AI to detect abnormal activity. IB has been around a while and I'm going to guess you have likely broken someone's rule about something. But it's also possible you just got caught up in...

Oh sure. Sanctions had nothing to do with such a profitable choice. :)

It's described as an insurance contract and it is very unlikely they made an error when pricing it. The one selling the insurance likely comes out ahead in the long run.

It's ironic that we are told sanctions are designed to hurt Putin. Does he eat a lot of big macs??

My comment was regarding stocks. With futures there is obviously a short for every long.

There are so many hidden costs with going short. None of the shorting retail traders I read messages from have any idea.

Your thoughts are very typical at market bottoms. We have been here before with gold and silver. If you want to be a trend chaser that's fine. You can then get some silver later. And you may be absolutely correct that you are putting the odds in your favor by doing that. It's just not my...

Just read the fee structure. It is specified as a percentage of a dollar amount. That will automatically adjust with inflation since it is in dollar terms. It's just how the math works out. lol.