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    Naif's Trading

    Well its good to see that you are not trading this blindly and understand the obstacles in the future. I would say in order to feel fairly confident in a system, it would need a MINIMUM of 500-800 trades. It looks like your average trade size is decent, so that is good. You may want to check...
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    Longer Term Trades on Commodities

    Platinum continues to show great strength and is probably headed higher. Coffee broke out to the upside a few days after I posted as expected, it looks like it could start to get some good momentum. Crude is still holding very strongly as well. My new interests are Oats and the swissfranc...
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    Naif's Trading

    Naif you need a bigger sample size then 34 trades! Anyone can make a system that good with that many trades over that time period.... put some more time in your backtesting or you will learn the hard way.
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    S&P has topped for 2006

    Because most indices are in a key exhaustion zone, 2 back to back range expansion days, sellers exhuasted. Its fitting for a minor CT rally until the zone is broken. As well as we are in a bull market. It doesnt just roll over because it hit resistance.... Add all that to being a friday and a...
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    S&P has topped for 2006

    1380-1390 is a massive confluence resistance zone on weeklies overlapped with daily zones. Thorn's call is not bad one, he is just using odds in his favor. The problem is that it is countertrend which severely reduces your odds. That is why this is a great place to put on a short once they...
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    S&P has topped for 2006

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    S&P has topped for 2006

    Thorn, I am afraid you may be wrong on this one... By the way, its better to make a call before the market starts rolling over... http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=79351
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    Longer Term Trades on Commodities

    Silver is a bit more volatile and tends to cut through my SR's a bit more then I would like. It still looks fairly decent for a buy though. I would be buying pullbacks if it can break a bit higher.
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    Longer Term Trades on Commodities

    Gold looks nice, I just dont want to chase it here. If continues stong to the upside I will be buying pullbacks hand over fist.
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    Longer Term Trades on Commodities

    Coffee looks like a nice risk/reward buy as well.
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    Longer Term Trades on Commodities

    Copper looks nice for a longer term trade. I just shy away from buying anything at this point because I always like to buy the low tick. Its just something with my psychology. It looks like it may continue to range for awhile. If it breaks below that purple line at 2.857 strongly, short it...
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    Longer Term Trades on Commodities

    Yes, thanks for the correction, it is platinum. It shows you how much I look at these things. After posting I took a look at volume thinking I wanted to get some Platinum at the open the next day. Definately passed when I saw the liquidity. These trades are merely a prediction, the only one...
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    Improving My Performance

    I know it sounds crazy but get a psychology trading coach. Most people dont realize that 50% of your time allocation should go towards the psychological aspect. It easily makes up 40-60% of your peformance, some people more like 80%. Most people would disagree with me, but its the truth...
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    Longer Term Trades on Commodities

    Last but not least is OJ. Has some good impulsing momentum. Once it gets a decent pullback, it should be bought hand over fist.
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    Longer Term Trades on Commodities

    Next is palladium. You have already missed buying the low tick, but at least it is showing some support. As with crude, you could put some on here and add on pullbacks if and when it breaks out. If it breaks though the lows fairly hard I would short any bounce.
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    Longer Term Trades on Commodities

    I just thought I would post a couple nice trades I am watching on the weeklies. Nothing is guaranteed, but these are minimum 1:10, if not 1:50 risk reward with 75% odds if you can hold through the swings. I kept my charts fairly simple so everything is clear. First is Crude. Looks like a...
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    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    You can buy any of these blue zones tomorrow if the market gets down there with a 3 pt stop and a 6pt first pft and 12 pt second profit target.
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