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Oneway, another nice chart! Interesting. I'm a small independent builder. Maybe the National Builders think in chart and graph terms, but I don't. And most small builders don't. If this helps anyone, great: I have to take a regional view. I stick to a farm area within my region...

Oneway and all, Great charts Oneway. I've saved them for my kids to see. I'm just hoping, that those that read these very good posts will do the things necessary to preserve their wealth. I used to buy forecloseres until HUD shut it down. Very sad to experience even if the people...

Hey Oneway, I read those 2 reports and the energy in me just drains out. There is something disheartening about a govt. pump job claiming a 20% drop in your home equity should be reassuring. Your equity drops 20% (not accounting for a falling dollar). You're paid in dollars that are...

Oneway, Margaret is playing a bet. She is gambling or speculating, whatever, that she can pull off a small coup. In a upwardly trending market, I like it. Closer to the top I don't. RE is so illiquid. Unless you have been burned, like me, you don't respect how much time to allow for...

Steve, I've taken the time to write this stuff to try to inform people who haven't been thru it. But I'm not going to write a book here. I know that people will see what they want. I respect your opinions. I just don't agree. And I don't want to spend time trying to convince everyone...

Convert, Interesting how your handle shortens. Words are sometimes very interesting in their other meanings. I sure understand where you're at emotionally. To criticize you would be hypocritical of me. I was (and afraid I still am) very stubborn. I try to remember pride goeth before a...

TraderB, Thanks for the compliment. You are like the people who exited the dot. com craze at the top. Smart. I don't think that RE investors who can afford to lower their rents substantially, and still make money, need to sell. Tax wise, it would probably be dumb. But I can't see...

CB, I grew up in Orange County and some family still there. I know it very well. The whole LA Basin is a unique situation. Great weather, nice homes, jobs. It is a great place or at least it all was at one time or another. Lots of orange groves in my childhood. I agree with you 100%...

Steve, I'm projecting the commodity bull based on long-term demand from China and India and a falling dollar in the US. Rapid inflation is not good for RE, IMO. It scares folks because it comes with rising int. rates, a slowing economy and job loss. Leading to deflation. You can already...

Drsteph, I'm not sure what you mean, but the RE sellers sure need buyers. I hope they don't dry up too soon. We are in a 10-20 yr bull market for commodities. Don't leave it at gold only. Silver should reach its all-time high too. RE ran too hard, way overbought. Not much room...

Rumor has it that China is prompting its' citizens to hold 10%, of their personal wealth, in gold. Clinton is rumored to have sold the USG stockpile of silver in the 90s. We have been getting by on production only. Silver premiums reflect this shortage. And then there is alt. energy...

Gosh, you don't mean to buy RE now do you? Costs to landlords are increasing while the public's spendable income is decreasing (per the IRS). Reminds me of sailing out of a choppy bay directly into a storm. IMO, you just need a bigger anchor and stay in the bay. Add some gold and silver to...

Cache, A good post. Those of us who make our money this way must know this cycle. I think a RE sell trigger to watch, for novices in this field, is the issuance of Builder Bonds "supposedly" during peak selling periods. This is not necessary if Banks have confidence in the contiuation of...

007, Your friend has guts. All you need is for the FED to stop propping up T Bills and you can't close. But it is a good scheme because the deposit is tied to qualifying. You are playing the very top of the market and you must be nimble. Woe to those who don't see it and foolishly...

These guys go to prison. In the 80s I saw several get nailed.

Tao, "Back to the original question, what asset classes are you guys put your money in? I am about 60% cash, 30% stock and 10% bond. I'll probably buy a second home within next five years." I've posted this somewhere on the site. I like the leverage of unique startups that have a product...

Oneway, That is a real good post. I hadn't thought of the ripple to consumer spending in depth. I knew there would be fallout, but of course it is consumer spending. That will impact things worldwide to some extent. I've got my eye on a junior coal miner ready to open in 2005. Will...

Quote from Bloomberg Online 9-14-04, frontpage: "While predicting home-price movements is as dicey as long- term weather forecasting, there's reason to believe that home prices may be easing. If you are bullish on the $15 trillion U.S. residential market, it may be time to curb your...

From cycles I've seen, real estate agent jobs are pushed as people lose jobs in other fields. It is usually real bad timing. Too many agents cuts the pie too thin. But it is a great job if you are good with people and details.

'Exactly. RE is just another portfolio and when your portfolio increases by 100 - 300 percent in just a few years - the situation here in So. CA. - you need to be smart and actually transact something to lock in a gain. The mistake people make in managing an RE portfolio is assumming it will...