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Back when I was part of the management of a Pharma company we had three big offices: One in Philadelpha, one in London and one in Paris. The two European offices were at constant war with each other and ocassionaly I would be dispatched to try to get the two to work together. I have a...

Well: Here are the calculations I originally presented: Short put: Sell Jun 17.25 put for a net credit of $60 Yield = 60/1665 = 3.6% in 105 days or 12.5% annualized Prob = 68% Expectation = .68(60) - .01(404) - .31(202) = 40.8 - 4.04 - 62.6 = -25.84 Move out and make a spread: Sell...

Here, where the world is quiet; Here, where all trouble seems Dead winds' and spent waves' riot In doubtful dreams of dreams; I watch the green field growing For reaping folk and sowing, For harvest-time and mowing, A sleepy world of streams. I am...

Complete and utter nonsense... and you can't be so stupid to not know it. Why do you bother maintaining such a phoney persona? What do you gain?? It's a mystery to me. No Family? No friends? No job ? No Life?? If you were really interested in trading well you would be asking...

Just to follow up.... PM, being pathologically non-quantitative, constantly decries my probability and expectation calculation as 'meaningless'.(mostly because they reveal his trades to be bad judgement) If I look at any option table for any stock I see in there option prices for...

What does it mean when I post probability levels and expectations associated with trades??? It strikes me that PROBABLY PM is not the only one who does not understand when I post probability and expectation calculations. Let me go though just those two items: Probability: When I say...

Put Master is in a bad mood today which makes him more idiotic than usual (if that's possible). The short put and spread calculations are correct and tell an interesting (if re-iterated) tale. The further out spread is a better statistical bet than the shorter naked put. Although NEITHER are...

IPI: Short put: Sell Jun 17.25 put for a net credit of $60 Yield = 60/1665 = 3.6% in 105 days or 12.5% annualized Prob = 68% Expectation = .68(60) - .01(404) - .31(202) = 40.8 - 4.04 - 62.6 = -25.84 Move out and make a spread: Sell Sept 17 put and buy Sept 14 put for a net credit of...

WMT: I am still looking for relatively safe, long term investments for the extra cash in my portfolio. With the Dow and S&P at highs this is a bad time to need to invest money, but the longer I let cash sit idle the more I lose in income. WMT was recently listed as the the #6 holding...

I don't disagree with that...mostly. "...so much of the companies income is tied to AAPL." If you plot CRUS with AAPL: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=2y&s=CRUS&l=off&z=l&q=l&c=aapl&ql=1 You can see that AAPL sucked CRUS up with it when Apple Fever was at its peak, and now CRUS is...

With CRUS at 22.07: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CRUS&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=l&c= "Catch a falling knife and put it in your pocket..." :) Short Put: Sell 1 April $18 put for $25 ($30 is the ask, the bid is $25)...Required = $1,775 (yield = 1.4%) Bull Put Spread: Sell 1 April $19 put...

TIBX: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=TIBX+Headlines http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=TIBX+Profile http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=TIBX+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=tibx http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=TIBX&t=2y&l=off&z=l&q=b&c=...

Is this forum live???

CSX: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/csx-corp-slips-underperform-230844546.html http://finance.yahoo.com/news/csx-railroads-4q-profit-slips-213635221.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CSX+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=csx...

CPB: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/campbell-soup-profit-falls-7-152900472.html http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=CPB+Key+Statistics http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=cpb http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CPB&t=5y&l=on&z=l&q=l&c= Trade: Jan '14...

ATK: http://www.deseretnews.com/article/765622611/Homeland-Security-and-its-cache-of-bullets.html (I have a little .380 pocket pistol. I went to the range on Tues. and spent $40 on ammunition. There is a real shortage and prices are jacked up)...

HNZ: My numbers: I got the 70/65 bull put spread for $25 credit. Yield = 25/475 = 5.26% in six months is 10.5% annualized. Not a killing but I think the Prob is very high...i.e. risk the deal will fall through close to zero. At closing the spread looks like it is giving $30. That...

I've been trading using that basic idea for over 10 years. It works OK for the right stocks but has severe limitations which you better be aware of or you will get killed. Most importantly you need to have some assurance that the company is going to continue 'as is' for the expected duration...

If you bought calls on HNZ yesterday expect to get a phone call: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/14/berkshire-heinz-options-idUSL1N0BE75B20130214?feedType=RSS&feedName=mergersNews&rpc=43

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/02/14/did-buffett-overpay-for-heinz.aspx