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Rumor been sold

I am a former institutional (financial nat gas) trader who made an attempt to trade for a living from home during 2006-2008. My style tends to be mean reversion and scaling in/out. After spectacular success I had a spectacular failure during the equity market crash. Have been back at a day...

What others consider to be good r/r scenarios should be irrelevant to you. As you surely already know there are successful scalpers with high win % and they almost assuredly have avg gain<avg loss. On the other side of the spectrum are the trend following types going for the big moves i.e. low...

I can almost understand why you attempted a live trade today: you had done a fair amount of backtesting using consistency in drawing your pre-open trendlines off 5 min swing h/l and every r/r metric from 1:1 to 3:1 had positive expectancy using your sample size. That said, what good does all...

Good job KP - has to be nice to be armed with some semblance of risk/reward stats for a change - ones *you* tested and have complete confidence in. However, gotta admit, I am surprised the 1:1 was successful 66% of the time. As for what to do next: completely up to you, but how about checking...

Keep up the good work KP!

Right back near the top of the channel after a brief (2 day) excursion under the lows.

KP: After reading the last several posts of yours this needs to be said . . . If you refuse to do the work (defining and testing setups, developing a plan, etc) because you fear the end result of that work will not be to *your* satisfaction then you have 100% already determined your outcome: a...

Precisely! However, you still have to concretely define the "setup" before you can begin collecting performance stats on it. Oh, and your concern about this 1 setup only happening every 2 weeks should be of zero concern to you at this moment. Your goal right now should be to test the efficacy...

Think of it more as collecting stats on your favorite setup irrespective of context. You won't ever have confidence in taking said setup if you don't know how it performs. Ok, I can now see why your head is spinning w all these things you think you need to test - right away. Why not 1) test...

Except maybe: not doing the work first, having a smaller account balance to show for it, and months later zero backtested results because you have bounced all over the place with ideas and no structure. Imo forget about trying to learn and monitor all these different setups (hinges, 50%...

Correct, so on your chosen example after the 5 min close >SL there was NO pullback on the 1 min therefore no entry therefore no need to take stats on it. right?

That's a start KP but aren't you reading her setup/entry incorrectly? As I understood the setup was a 5 min close above the SL then enter 1st pullback using the 1 min chart. The 1st 5 min close above SL was 3992.75 and there was NO pullback to enter on til after 3999.50 was reached, after...

I won't chide you for trading real $$ sans a concrete plan - the market does a really good job of that all on its own. I will, however, kindly remind you that the very things you struggle with in coming up with a plan: when to fan trendlines, when not to, when is the breakout real, when isn't...

This is where you have went awry imo. You seem so intent on having a means to catch every little wiggle in the market. And of course you can't identify strict rules to follow when using so many different approaches. Start with the basics: identify the rules for 1 setup, backtest it over N...

re-posting what i typed earlier since it may have gotten lost in all the negative clutter in your thread today . . .

I will make a humble suggestion that may help you KP in lieu of continuing to journal in the method you have been. Since sim trading is not available to you on your platform, why not do exactly what you mentioned: identify your entry price, your stop price, profit target, etc on a spreadsheet...

Have you considered used Tradestation as your broker/charting platform? Multicharts was built to compete directly against Tradestation, ie both are very nice charting platforms. Tradestation is also a clearinghouse so can trade directly from the platform. I believe they require $5k opening...

It won't be nears as easy as you think, but it needs to be done. The time consuming part won't be writing out the plan it will be backtesting to determine what works, what doesn't, what kind of probabilities/risk/reward/etc. That part takes a truckload of time.

Source: Tradestation 9/22 all sessions high 2003, day session high 1999.25.