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  1. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I'm short CHF also, but weren't Blocher and his ilk behind forcing Hildebrand out? What went on with his wife has to be SOP for European power types - I wouldn't think there would be a chance of forcing him out over something like that unless he had lost serious political support.
  2. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    This doesn't compute. There's nothing asymmetric (from a EURCHF short point of view) about it. If the floor fails, you'll have plenty of time to get in and short EURCHF (say at 1.19) on the way down to 0. On the other hand, you could wake up one morning to find the floor has been raised to 1.25...
  3. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Interesting from Krasting ... http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/2012/04/on-swiss-imf-and-g-20.html Keep an eye on how much Switzerland contributes to extra IMF funding. If the number is a lot more than $12B, look for the IMF criticism of the 1.20 floor to go away (and perhaps a green...
  4. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I suppose I alluding to something about VAR, but I'm not smart enough to figure that stuff out. Besides, those VAR measures were the gospel at banks up until the moment they all blew up from it.:p
  5. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I take all moves under advisement and decide whether to exit or not. I'm not sure of the value of figuring out the position as a percentage of net worth. Being long EURCHF with 20% of my net worth is a different animal than being long pork bellies with 20% of my net worth, or for that matter...
  6. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Short EURCHF?
  7. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Especially today.
  8. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Long to the hilt. Small downside with the chance of waking up one morning to find you've just made 500-1000 pips.
  9. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Jordan declines to comment on raising the floor. EURCHF headed back down.:)
  10. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    EURCHF getting a pop as the finmin is about to hold a press conference. Don't think any bump in the floor will be announced, it's probably to talk about new rules for the SNB and their families.:)
  11. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I agree it's comparing apples and oranges, but thought it was important to get the reasoning of those on the other side of this trade out there, and there is another side. There are some who think 100% of traders are long EURCHF. I'm also curious as to why the article mentions credit lines...
  12. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Contrary voice on EURCHF ... http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/04/13/swiss-national-bank-out-of-their-tiny-little-minds/?mod=wsj_share_twitter If EURCHF drops much below 1.20, the SNB doesn't have nearly enough firepower to cancel out the stop-loss orders that could be triggered. They...
  13. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    More good news for franc shorts. Switzerland is about to become one of the world's unfriendlier places to locate a hedge fund ... http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/78ef5710-8581-11e1-a394-00144feab49a.html#axzz1rYVoqGAA
  14. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Don't know how I missed that one. Yes, this makes no sense. The SNB wants people short the franc. They want speculators thinking it's a one-way bet. It helps their cause. It'd be borderline insane for the SNB to deliberately try to burn them.
  15. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    EURCHF holding up like a champ as Europe crashes. Sweet (so far).
  16. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Big jump (relatively speaking :D ) in the HKD last night. USD/HKD pretty close to the bottom of its band.
  17. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Like night follows day ... :D https://twitter.com/#!/zerohedge/status/190155523537108993
  18. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Jim O'Neill caused a bit of a flurry (if 9 pips can be called a flurry) in EURCHF, saying the SNB may take the floor up to 1.25 soon, with an ultimate goal even higher. I don't know if I should be pleased with this or worried that Goldman is trying to unload euros.:p...
  19. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Long EURCHF at 1.2011. The SNB is lying in wait. I expect a big response by Mother's Day. :cool:
  20. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    For the love of god, I think you top-ticked TLT yet again. Write on the chalkboard 100 times: "Buy low, sell high."
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