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As one of the ones that gave a negative post in the other "increase size with drawdown thread" I thought I should chime in here. Most people would agree with a fixed risk ratio as someone described above as the "correct" way to manage your risk. This is easily the easiest and safest way to...

LOL... I have to ask...what is your target price, time frame before the trade is profitable, and what is your stop loss price? You just using your GUT here on this trade or do you have some sort of signal that says the market is going higher? last question.....You like catching falling...

+1 or does not trade at all. It has been my experience with running loads of statistics on any type of system you can dream up that there are 4 basic things needed for a "profitable" system. This also assumes your system "triggers" enough trades to place in a years time. 1) High win rate...

Did you not read the second set of MC sim that show the EXACT same thing using profit factor? The first set looked at equal EXPECTANCY and the second set looked at equal PROFIT FACTOR. Both sets of data proved the same thing....go back and reread the thread and my detailed posts. BTW this...

Do you think that all professional football players learned to throw and catch a ball from NFL athletes? These are basic things that any trader should understand. To say that you cannot learn these basic skills from someone who does not do this for a profession is quite narrow minded. Did...

I'm done on this subject...seriously believe what you want I don't care. Until you or anyone else provides some data or proof then what you say is sounding like the Charlie Brown teacher to me.."muah muah muh muah muah muah,....muah muah ,..muah muah mauh mauh"

Wow,...I read this and said...YOU have lived my life exactly,..with one minor exception. I do not have a trading group to join in my area. I have joined ET because I am seeking this sort of outlet. However, I have become profitable and find every thing you mentioned to be true of my path to...

Let me correct this,...."you could have a win rate of 0.000000001% and still be profitable" THAT too is a TRUE statement. Only problem is that is also called the POWERBALL LOTTO. Do you trade lottery tickets? Again,...profit is not effected by win rate,...just your risk of ruin and draw...

I do trade with real money and make good money doing so and have been doing so for years now. You can call me ignorant all you want but you have failed to enlighten any of us with any data. I have already said I agree that the MC Sim does not account for a fixed risk ratio position sizing that...

PROVE IT.:D

I am sure you could show how the MAX gain from such a system is profitable but at the cost of DRAW DOWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! THAT IS THE POINT PEOPLE!!! Win rate effects DRAW DOWN and volatility swings in your account's equity. IT DOES NOT EFFECT OVERALL PROFITABILITY OF A SYSTEM!!! I dont...

You can make up whatever formulas you want to address trading however you view it in your head but these formulas I have given are not made up. FYI,...your formula is for the slope of a line....y=mx+b.

HTR, You and I agree completely and are saying the same thing. I am only pointing out that Probability of trade winning is NOT irrelevant. All pieces must come together. Yes you could lose money if that were the only thing working in your favor. I'm just trying to provide DATA to show...

+1,000,000...couldn't agree more!!

Because he knows more about trading and risk management and psychology of trading than you apparently do. Also because Jack Schwager (world famous trader) who wrote a book called "Market Wizards" (...ever hear of it?) thought enough of him to have him as the ONLY nontrader in his book. Maybe...

Yes this has been proven many times over to be a BAD idea. Go read any book by Dr. Van K Tharp and he will discuss the subject of Martingale strategy. Read "Supertrader" or "The Definitive Guide to Position Sizing" both by him and he goes into great detail why this is stupid.

90% system with PF = 2 and 1% risk

10% system with PF= 2 and 1% risk

90 % system with PF = 2 and only 0.1% risk

WOW,....I didn't mean to spark such anger on this board. Just trying to engage in a HEALTHY discussion about Probability win rate and Expectancy and stats about a trading system. I have taken a look at the issues brought up above. That is where someone (I believe neke said it..but not sure)...