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With volatility and uncertainty so high, equities are uninvestible. Currently equities are trading like oil or bitcoin, which are horrible long-term investments due to their extreme volatility. Until equity volaltility comes down meaningfully (like VIX below < 20) the stock market will be a...

I agree. In 3 weeks the VIX will print at an all-time high of 90+ as the market finally capitulates at 1700 in the S&P.

After junk bonds, Fed will be buying preferreds and common...then e-mini S&Ps, SPYs, QQQs, DIA, and IWM ETFs. By June they will be selling VIX futures.

Saudis are on a mission to destroy all US shale companies.

A wave of oil bankruptcies is on the way https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/02/business/oil-crash-bankruptcies-whiting/index.html

Where was WTI trading before the exaggerated Trump tweet caused the algos to drive futures up 25%? That's probably your worst case scenario. I doubt we open up lower than $22 Sunday evening.

Saudis and Russians now fingerpointing. No deal if 2 main players can't get along or agree on anything. Now they're looking at US and Trump to lead these cuts. No US involvement, no production cuts.

No chance US shale producers or supermajors (Exxon, Chevron) voluntarily partake in any production cuts. This only happens if the Texas RRC enforces it on in-state shale entities. Big oil won't be obligated to cut, and are totally against it. Where's the 10 to 15 million going to come from? At...

Instant $7K loser on a measly 1 lot WTI future.

Algos that fade the final gasps of the Trump tweet move are cleaning up too. An algo that gets in early and rides the Trump tweet move, and then reverses itself at the top or bottom after the move has reached exhaustion, is something I'd be willing to throw money at.

Amazing that some bs tweet (with no confirmation) can move the market 35%+ in a few minutes. Trump must be making millions front-running his ridiculous exaggerated tweets. Would love to be his commodities broker.

The Russians were wise to walk away from the Mar 9 OPEC+ production cut proposal. No amount production cuts would have been able to offset the unprecedented demand destruction we are currently witnessing.

With WTI and Brent in the 20's and the Saudis determined to keep prices low until shale is bankrupt, E&P's are going to have to slash their dividends (OXY) or sacrifice their balance sheets and long-term viability just to keep paying it (CVX, XOM). Energy companies with monster dividends are...

i remember it well. The bailout was to purchase mainly mbs, corporates and bad loans. They saved the creditors, but destroyed the shares of GM, Citi, and AIG when they nationalized them. And they didn't buy one SPY ETF or S&P e-mini future....not one. Good luck leaning on that unlimited Fed bid...

Where the hell was the Fed during 2009 when the stock market was down 50%+? That was 10x worse than today's market environment. They didn't step in to save us then, and they're NOT going to step in as a "buyer of last resort" at the 1700 SP level.

No sign of stock or equity purchases on Fed balance sheet. They never have and never will. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/

Fed made it clear they are not coming in to buy e-mini S&P futures, SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM to save the equity market. They're absolutely not buying any high risk assets, which includes junk bonds and any form of common stock or equity inexes/ETFs. So 1700 SP 500 and 90+% print in the VIX looks like...

When the underlying commodity (crude oil) is as volatile as something like bitcoin, it makes any industry related stocks almost uninvestable. The current volatility makes oil a great product to trade, but a crappy long-term investment. I agree its a doomed sector. Too much anti-fossil fuel...

Mr. Tasty Trade pocketed $84M when he sold ThinkorSwim to TD Ameritrade...so he doesn't have to answer to anyone. He probably didn't make a dime trading at the CBOE, even when they were giving it away on the floor in the 90's, but he recognized an opportunity (a retail options trading platform)...

Agree with your big picture assessment, but I also think KSA smelled blood and is jumping on the golden opportunity to finally put the remaining struggling shale oil producers out of their misery. The supermajors may come in and pick up the pieces for pennies on the dollar, and then resume...