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  1. Trader13

    Peplink Dual-Wan Router

    Cisco pretty much "owns" the router market at the high end. But for the SMB market I have not heard good things. Either you get the rebranded Linksys routers which have reliability problems, or you get a heritage Cisco router that is difficult to administer and has lots of negative reviews...
  2. Trader13

    Peplink Dual-Wan Router

    Porc, I have a few questions I hope you can answer: 1) Why did you select Peplink as your router? Just curious, cause I never heard of them until I stumbled across them in some other forums. 2) Do you have the model 20, model 210, other? 3) Does the router maintain a single IP...
  3. Trader13

    Peplink Dual-Wan Router

    I am researching dual-wan routers for trading. Thinking about using two ISP's (cable and DSL) to ensure high availability for my internet connection. Some discussion forums report that many consumer-grade dual-wan routers have poor reliability. But I have seen a couple positive comments...
  4. Trader13

    optimal Hedge Ratio

    Just for comparison, I am attaching the same chart I posted previously but with the daily timeframe changed to 5-min intraday bars over the previous four days. The loookback for beta continues to be 20 periods (red), 60 periods (cyan), and 250 periods (yellow).
  5. Trader13

    optimal Hedge Ratio

    (1) Good callout on seasonality. You'll certainly have seasonality factors for intraday prices based on time-of-day session dynamics. But same can be said for daily/weekly/monthly seasonality. Commodity markets exhibit seasonal cycles, and even simple equities have quarterly earnings cycles...
  6. Trader13

    optimal Hedge Ratio

    (1)You can certainly use intraday prices for beta calculation, and probably should if you are trading intraday. Use whatever timeframe is appropriate for your trading strategy. (2)The benefit of using ATR is that it may be more convenient using out-of-the-box software indicators which...
  7. Trader13

    optimal Hedge Ratio

    Using beta in conjunction with a dollar equivalence multiplier is an example of a minimum variance technique. An alternative technique suggested by another ET member is to use the ratio of ATR's. Simpler to calculate, the resulting ratio incorporates both dollar adjusment as well as...
  8. Trader13

    Advice on buying some Pistols

    That's good advice for home defense if you are not an experienced gun user. Revolvers have several advantages over semi's: - You simply pull the trigger to fire it, which is just how simple you want it to work under stress. By contrast, you have to chamber a round and release the safety on...
  9. Trader13

    optimal Hedge Ratio

    Attached is a chart showing beta calculated for XLK and QQQ since the beginning of this year. These ETFs share the computer technology sector, are correlated, and consequently are good candidates for hedging or spreading. The beta values shown are for XLK with regard to QQQ as the reference...
  10. Trader13

    optimal Hedge Ratio

    I'm interested to hear thoughts from others about the optimal approach for calculating a hedge ratio (HR) between two trading instruments. HR's are useful for basic hedging, as well as pair and spread trading. There are multiple considerations for futures and other derivative contracts based...
  11. Trader13

    Futures spread trading

    I'm hardly a veteran of spread trading flies, but I really like the concept of mean reversion trading when you can find the right setup. Expanding your chart to a longer timeframe reveals that this energy spread has some wide excursions from the mean for several months during the past year...
  12. Trader13

    Futures spread trading

    Actually, there is a nuance in equity curve trading that separates it from the basic concepts of trending/ranging markets. The equity curve is simply the cumulative performance of a trading system's P&L. You can use drawdowns in the equity curve to place trades or increase trade size if you...
  13. Trader13

    Futures spread trading

    So using your chart to time or size your trades, you are effectively using the equity curve as a mean reversion indicator. Interesting approach which I've come across before though not often. I wonder if the fact that these trades are seasonally based makes mean reversion more likely for the...
  14. Trader13

    What strategies do you guys use?

    Natenberg and McMillan are great reference books for options. A lesser known book that addresses many practical aspects of options trading is The Business of Options published by Wiley. The author, Martin O'Connell, is witty and good humored which makes it an easy read for mere mortals like...
  15. Trader13

    Futures spread trading

    Here is a link to MRCI's published results for hypothetical seasonal trades, including spread trades, for 2009 (access to more recent results requires a subscription). www.mrci.com/pdf/hypo09.pdf
  16. Trader13

    Price-weighting influence on DIA

    Most traders already know that the Dow Industrials index is price-weighted, meaning that stocks with high share prices account for a larger portion of the index. Other equity indexes, like the S&P 500, are capitalization-weighted. While the Dow is often referenced as a benchmark for the broad...
  17. Trader13

    CL NG correlation chart

    FWIW, a few years ago I spoke with some energy traders at a trading conference on some of the differences between these two fuels. They said that oil price volatility is related to currency movements since oil is priced as a global asset. Prices also move based on geopolitical events in the...
  18. Trader13

    Futures spread trading

    Thanks for running these numbers. Results are consistent with the put/call skew often seen in equity options.
  19. Trader13

    Futures spread trading

    Always that risk, too. My feeling is that the single-stock event risk is not symmetrical, with the downside scaring me more. It's a judgement call, not to be defended but simply explained.
  20. Trader13

    Futures spread trading

    Holding a trade for months seems like a long time to me. But I suppose if you're trading in size, then you need an ultra-stationary spread that is worth waiting for to "ripen". I'm glad you used ED in your example chart. I think the ED is the most flexible contract for spread trading. You...
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