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kinda shocked to hear you use that word. dont you technically need very high volume and some other things? I've personally been an apple bear for a long time but even this move has shocked me a little bit, however I don't really see today's action as any different from the past 3 months.

Account balance: $31,927 Deposit: $17,400 currently at 9.01% YTD vs SPY 6.61%. I think these next couple weeks will be pretty big in my yearly out performance. Obviously I am hoping for a big crash. I have about $25,000 cash right now that I will be using if we get a good correction, and...

Account value: 31,899 deposits: 17,400 just sold 80% of my buy and hold stuff. pretty much just holding AFL, a little NSC, and a little CAT. 80% cash now.

sorry but there's no free lunch, these things are first of all difficult to find short shares and secondly very expensive to short. more then completely wiping out your "free" 0.9%.

Account value: $31,845 Total deposits: $17,400 Still in big AFL trade. I think it's starting to turn around and don't see much downside from here. Starting to look more closely at OXY again even though it's above what I previously sold it at I like the action it's starting to show.

Account value: $31,750 Total deposit: $17,400 Had to deposit another $1000 which I didn't want to do so early. I am trying to keep my deposits to the first of the month. I transfered 5k to my roth a bit ago which brought my brokerage account down to about 9.3k. I placed the cash secured...

just deposited $200 to make total deposits $16,400 Reason for doing this was I was about $200 short of selling an AFL March 16 P @ 1.30 which is a trade I just placed. I also bought some shares of AFL before the earnings release so that trade has gone against me so far. Now have a full...

not only is there better stuff to short then something under tangible, but he also said BAC has been the laggard, what other financial company went up about 100% last year?

you obviously don't know much about poker. my edge is determined when i get my money in better then my opponent, and doing so over a long period of time. for instance my pocket pair vs his two overs all in pre flop gives me a 52-55% chance of winning the hands based on the cards. this is a...

im not sure why people keep talking about black swans. i simply want to know how someone can think they have a statistical edge when they don't know all the variable in the market. i was just pointing out 1987 as an 18SD event which would disprove anyones statistical evidence of an actual edge.

right, and i agree with you, i also would not have participated in black monday, and im sure a lot of us would have gotten out scratch free. i wasn't making the point to say black monday could/would wipe us out, i made the point to say you can't really rely on probabilities when the possibility...

texas holdem is a game of probabilities, yet they at least know how many cards are in the deck. you cant call trading a game of probabilities because quite frankly you don't know the probabilities, which is why i brought up the 18SD event of black monday. you might think you know the...

thats like telling a texas holdem player to know when his royal flush is beat because the dealer added 4 joker cards, yet never told the person holding the royal flush

im making money, ive made 60% in the last 2.5 years. not great, not terrible. however you again are assuming in your charting format that you know all the variables, but you don't. new variables can be introduced at any point, and these variables may be hidden by other variables. here's an...

Right..in essences it sounds like you are agreeing with me. I guess I should ask you to drop the 18SD black monday event as you seem to be getting caught up in it and instead move back to my main point. how can someone quantifiable have an edge, which requires a statistical exactness, when all...

I'm assuming statistics and standard deviations, which is what traders need to quantify an edge. And a standard deviation of 18 with a time value of a day is in the ballpark of 1 in many many billions of days. Given the markets historic volatility, black Monday was an 18 SD event

I'm curious, if the black Monday event that took place in 1987 was an 18 standard deviation move (on the conservative side) which should happen less often then 1 in the entire duration of the universe (were we just so lucky in the first say 100 years of the market to see a once in a universe...

YTD Gain: 8.21% S&P YTD gain: 5.18% Had to give myself a little confidence booster since I underperformed on the week :D

Account value: $30,619 WoW Gain: 0.43% (not including 2k deposit) SPY WoW Gain: 0.72% Total deposits: $16,200 Got cash burning a hole..hoping the market does something soon!

just popped 2k in here Current account value: $30,518 Total deposits: $16,200 Been scanning the markets everyday for hours and not seeing much attractive longs atm. I may have to change my policy of no shorts during times like this. Will update if any trades made.