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I have, several times as this nonsense progressed since it first surfaced. Well, here's to hoping that the house and senate leadership that we've heard from are isolated from the bodies of their respective house...

That being the case, what's the odds that any plan that goes up for a vote doesn't die right then and there? What congress-critter in their right, if self-serving, mind would vote for something that their constituents would most certainly vote them out of office for afterward?

None of them would be on the hook if the policy makers had never created the legislation that allowed Wall Street to create the derivatives that the loan originators were able to sell to after they found the willing "victims" to prey on. Mozilo and his kind should be in jail. Cox and the 5...

But, Paulson has been talking about mortgage-related assets; derivatives. All it takes is 5% of the mortgages to go into default to kill an asset that was geared up 20:1.

How does the FDIC blow up when it is "backed by the full faith and credit of the US government?" Not that I want them to print any more of it, they've printed a bit too much already.

From another thread: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/27/b...ml?ref=business "The huge total reflects the way the market is structured, as well as the fact that someone does not need to actually be owed money by a company to be able to buy a credit-default swap. In that case, the buyer is...

Thanks for the link. I heard the same figure before too, but not the 50:1 gearing to an underlying $1.1T debt. The government should be focused on getting this crap under control before even thinking about the bailout.

Agree, they have a lot of de-leveraging ahead of them. It also remains to be seen how hard they get hit with loss of their most talented staff who will want no part of a commercial bank. Tracking where these people go may be the better long-term play. All that's at least 1-2 years off...

That's the crux of the entire problem. It'd be interesting, once you take into account all the CMOs, CDOs, MBSs and the CDSs that were written to "insure" those derivatives, just how much these fools geared up your average mortgage dollar.

It's puzzling why everyone's so filled with urgency over this situation when there isn't even a consensus of the breadth or depth of this problem. Economist opinions run the gamut. From those that say this problem can be dealt with entirely within the financial community with zero...

Then again, it could have been a loser for just about ever and just started working recently. Here's the last backtest I did yesterday over the life of the EURUSD. Sobering to say the least...

Anyone who dipped their toes in the unregulated CDS market was neither sound nor risk-adverse. They were friggin' idiots.

Argh!

The dates of the backtest are included in the attachment I posted. It was a one year test of one minute data with trades active from 6am to 6pm ET. What you're missing is that this is a trend-following scalper. Many small losses and a few big winners. Just so no one thinks this is the...

Not very if you're using a single FX broker. One of BGH's key points is to spread this over several brokers and probably over several currencies as well. If you're using a single broker things get a lot harder. No one's noticed it, but TradeStation allows for fractional pip pricing. The...

BGH, Apologies, slapped that together all too quickly from a pre-existing system of mine and to put it simply, I screwed up... I tend to dismiss insanely obvious approaches immediately and should have given this the more critical look it deserved. Anyway, here's a clean write of your...

Here's the equity curve for your system over the past year of trading: Trade size: 1 Commisson: $2.50/trade ($5.00 RT)

If only it were that straightforward. Have you ever heard of a "toxic" mortgage when the paper is directly attached to the property it was written for? No, Paulson is trying to get us to by mortgage-related assets, derivatives that contain fractions of mortgages. Worse, has anyone...

While you're technically correct the plain fact of the matter is that the government is buying shit and it's not even in a pie crust. There's no hope of recovering a dime from the purchase of this crap and the public would be lucky if the government is able to recoup enough money to cover the...

Senator McCain, If you are truly committed to reform then you must bring this bailout nonsense to a stop. Throwing money at this problem is akin to using gasoline to put out a forest fire -- it won't work and will only make the end result worse. The folks that created this mess must be...