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If there's no change in spot price, the future contract will trend towards the spot price with 0 days left.

It's an incorrect interpretation. You have to consider the cash and carry effect.

Yes, he is a value guy. But I'm not. I watch him because sometimes he provides some macro perspectives.

VIX or VIX term stucture. You can read Euan Sinclair books on volatility trading and positional option trading. But for any short vol strategy, trade small. It should just be one of the strategies.

Consider selling vol such as straddles with risk filters. Positive edge over long run. But trade conservatively with fix bets.

Thanks for the last point as a reminder. Always be prepared for all market regimes.

Chill everyone.

Pretty entertaining though.

Noted. Didn't mean to be condescending.

I don't think the market wizards achieved 40% annually. Even druckenmiller achieve 30% over a few decades. If you are talking about his latest book, unknown market wizards, I'm not as convinced because many of them blew up their accounts. And to be honest. Making 40% a year day trading (talking...

Yes agree. 40% returns on net worth would be impressive. 40% of a tiny proportion of net worth is not. Though 40% returns even yearly for a sustained period of time (talking about at least a decade) outside of Ren Tech is unheard of. Maybe there are really geniuses around? I don't know.

There are systematic trend following funds like Man AHL, Winton, Dunn Capital, AQR. Just that they don't do it in a simplistic way. They use different systems to measure trend strengths - scaling in and out of markets. And yes - simple buy and hold may not work. Sideway mkts happen more often...

IB does have a REST API: https://www.interactivebrokers.com/webtradingapi/ But most retail algo traders don't use that. We usually use IB gateway API (a more lightweight version of TWS). It allows for streaming of data and stuff. But for me my server trigger my python scripts via cronjob every...

Hmmm...do you even know what's 1000000000%? 1 dollar invested becomes 10 million.

Wow. How does this work? Sign me up.

The assumption of 8-12% lends well more to index funds. Implementing a discretionary value strategy probably will vary widely across value investors. Not everyone is a Warren buffet. Even so he has underperformed in recent years. 8-12% assumption on a single ctry index could also be a hit and...

Value investing could still stagnate during sideway market. You need to have different strategies that work for different regimes. Sideway markets happens more than trending markets in market history.

Currencies are usually stationary (in statistical lingo) i.e sideway ranging. Does it mean that bitcoin will stabilise and range around a mean value?

Watch your risk like a hawk. Be in realized volatility or VAR measures and you shd be fine.

50% drawdown is actually pretty much gameover. U need 100% returns to breakeven. Oh well. These are fund managers.