Search results

Yes, sold for about 30 pip profit, then woke up 10 minutes ago to find madness had taken over the FOREX market :) And just re-established a short at 1.2960. Apparently the market is delayed in it's reaction to the Fed statement (which I find amusing). Even Thomson thinks we'll see 3.75% by...

Took a short on EUR/USD at 1.2896 when it spiked. Stop is tight at 1.2925. Let's see if the madness pays out.

LOL...yes. And that's why the mayor of Moscow here is threatening to penalize weather forecasters' salaries every time they're wrong.

On the JPY front, I see strength from a fundamental point of view - re: China not reval'ing any time soon. You're mixing fundamental and technical points of view.

Thank you for your more detailed reply. It's enough of concern for me to look for another option. Cheers. -Ivan

Yes, yes. You can be wrong frequently when you do this, and people will laugh and say "hah! He lost big", though none of them had put their neck out with a forecast. But the few times you're right, everyone will call you genius. Isn't that actually an American proverb? The difference...

Don't think you embarrass yourself by calling out the possibility of erratic action, my friend. I think if you came on here claiming armageddon was in the mix, you might (read all the black monday threads). But a little warning about the potential? Nah, actually I prefer warnings from people...

Absolutely my strategy. For now, I've gone long USD/JPY at 104.90 because everyone is going nuts on this China reval thing for the May holidays, and I'm betting the "rumor" that says they're looking to do so is crap. If i'm right, USD/JPY will rise significantly in the coming short term...

As I said, if it breaks 1.2795 area, I'll short again. I cashed out because I did not feel comfortable continuning with this week's events. I had made well beyond my profit goal, and I'll re-enter on either side depending on where it moves. Sheesh - so much flak for a good trade! :) I do...

Thanks, sir. Like you, I'm going to start playing yen.

Hindsight is always 20/20. Trimming half the move just secured profit. I got the other half. And I'm much better off than those who went long EUR. So I'm not really sure if any of that is considered a bad move.

Cashed out all of my short EUR positions - 200 pip profit on one half, 180 or so on the other. I originally had a target of 1.2815, but something about this weekend told me to cash out. I continue to maintain that we'll be seeing the EUR drop because of perceived Fed action. But I'm out...

It's not just the French. People are beginning to read the tea leaves.

Chood, not disputing what you say, just trying to get more specifics. I was just about to make the switch when I saw your comments, and would really like to know more about how they cheated you. Please either post here (as others would no doubt love to hear more) or PM me at your convenience...

I trimmed half of my rather large short from 1.3080 and closed it at 1.2920 to hedge against event risk of the GDP number. Felt good taking 160 pips, even if it was only half the trade. I think the EUR/JPY was definitely part of it. But I also think the reval talk is being hyped too much...

Yes, it will. The market is still pushing short on the Euro. Fed speeches keep preaching interest rate hikes.

Durables number was bad, market shot back up. But once again, I'm in this longer term. Next week, as the Fed raises, the market will resume the whole idea of rate differentials. Perhaps even before.

Thing is, I'm not sure I'd consider the down move over. My target at the moment is 1.2815 At that point, we'll reconsider. But if the Fed is indeed going to be raising interest rates like people think, and the ECB isn't going to be, expect this to last a bit (summer, etc). This, of...

Yeah, I saw that. Though I'm thinking it's a one off. I'm sure, however, that offers little comfort to your stop. Sorry, man.

Here is my thinking: http://www.blackswantrading.com/files/57f40b637af3c8e/bsccc042605.pdf Jack Crooks, from Black Swan Trading writes a morning newsletter that I highly recommend. This one in particular sums up why I'm short EUR in the short/mid term.