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  1. M

    selling calls/buying puts on stocks w/ unavailable shorts

    Your main problem is wide bid-ask spreads and low liquidity. Here's a simple formula to see if it's worth trading the option: take the bid/ask spread and divide it by the option's Delta. This will tell you by approximately how much must the underlying move in order for you to breakeven on...
  2. M

    Beginner question about Greeks (reading Natneberg for 2nd time)

    Most option calculators or analysis software will calculate the Greeks for you (e.g. check out CBOE website for some free tools - www.cboe.com/LearnCenter/RCTools.aspx ). Otherwise, the Greeks come from an option pricing model, such as the Black-Scholes, but I doubt you wanna do it by hand all...
  3. M

    How to get out ?

    Are you kidding, mate? You got a top class education and you don't know what to do!?:confused:
  4. M

    Beginner question about Greeks (reading Natneberg for 2nd time)

    Yes you're right. Except that in reality Delta and Gamma work dynamically so the option will increase by slightly more than 0.4 when the underlying price increases by $1.
  5. M

    Abt May 50 Call

    :)
  6. M

    Abt May 50 Call

    No that's not it, the ex-dividend date was Apr 13.
  7. M

    Abt May 50 Call

    Hmm, the IV is definitely off, something's up. I'm sure there's a reason for this though, we just can't see it yet.
  8. M

    Option special situations (no earnings before expiry)

    CYBX May IV is 20 pts higher than June, which means that something's up in May.
  9. M

    Option special situations (no earnings before expiry)

    Looking at the IV skew it doesn't look like it is all tied up to May 12. Jun options have the same IV as May, which wouldn't be the case if May 12 was the key date..
  10. M

    Covered call question

    I suggest you get yourself educated before trading options, but to answer your question: You're correct, if DIA expires below 103 then you pocket the $1 premium. Options don't get exercised the instant they go ITM, so if the DIA goes above 103 it doesn't automatically mean that you'll be...
  11. M

    Confused about IV

    That's true, you can use those as a substitute for the underlying, but Harold is looking for short-term moves and you get more leverage with short-term ATM.
  12. M

    Confused about IV

    Harold, Yes, you want to buy options that have a relatively low IV when comapred to past levels of IV (it can be 1 year or more if you like). You can also throw HV into the equation, to give you a more complete picture. The Delta of an option depends on how much OTM/ITM it is. I.e. ATM...
  13. M

    System for backtesting

    Have look at Option Gear at http://www.optiongear.com.au it might be what you're looking for. Btw, I'm not affiliated with them in any way, just heard there're ok.
  14. M

    Pictures of your trading stations

    Now I know why all the stores are sold out on 21" samsung LCD monitors.:D Great setup, though!
  15. M

    Higher ROE from selling calls than selling puts?

    Ignoring everything else (margin requirements and etc.), the reason that the call is more expensive is because, theoreticallly, the stock can go up to infinity, while down only to zero. So your potential risk on a naked short call is much greater than on a put, hence the higher compensation for...
  16. M

    Optionetics: Good or Bad ?

    Using market neutral option strategies and hedging both sides is not the same thing. For example, you can use straddles, strangles, butterflies, condors, vertical spreads and so on...the possibilities are endless really - that's the beauty of options.
  17. M

    probability distribution formula?

    Exactly! That's why I don't put too much weight on the probabilities given by the calculator.
  18. M

    probability distribution formula?

    Alassio, I know how the models work. The problem, though, is that you don't know the REAL probability. Besides, I don't trade to exploit "mis-pricings" between IV and HV. I only use a probability calculator to give me a rough idea of what the stock is capable of doing in a certain...
  19. M

    probability distribution formula?

    By the way, I always use IV as well. It is what the market expects so who am I to question that! :p
  20. M

    probability distribution formula?

    I wouldn't average them out, but you could use the one that gives you a more conservative result. That way you have "extra room" there. HV periods, again you can compare different ones to get a feel for what's been going on.
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