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I honestly don't think that oil is in a bubble. In the recent past we have seen several "bubbles" (Nasdaq and Housing, and possibly china) so a lot of people are calling oil a bubble, because anything that goes up very fast most be in a bubble. There are some major differences between housing...

If there is nuclear war I don't think there will be all that many people that are worried about how they will retire in 20 years. 5yr

I have a question for the elite community. How is it that the Dow Jones Transports is the strongest index in the past 5 years in the world (That I know of) while crude oil has quadrupled? If any index should be effected by high energy costs it should be the Dow Jones Transports, right? What...

They did raise the margin requirements, they announced it on the 6th. Crude oil has gone straight up since then. I have seen raising margins effect markets before, usually goes done on the day it happens as people adjust their positions, but then continues the trend. Oil didn't even tick down on...

They aren't, however they are supposed to control inflation, so they should be paying close attention to commodity markets. 5yr

They did raise the margins yesterday by 11.5%... it didn't seem to take any "gas" out of the markets http://nymex.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=43&item=1842 So does this mean that speculators aren't driving the market? 5yr

But some puts then, I thought you would have done this given your view and name. 5yr

How many contracts do you trade per month? 5yr

I am hearing rumors that it was UBS, you wouldn't want to be the guy to do this when they are announcing 8000 layoffs tomorrow, whats one more? 5yr

Here read this, it will answer your questions: http://www.cme.com/files/intro_fut_opt.pdf

wow this could get ugly...... You should take an economics course or read about markets

No there wasn't any "breaking news"

YM didn't do much, look at NQ and US and C, W, S, BO and ED. Very strange, no idea what happened, no mention of it on bloomberg and called around the street, no one knows just a bunch of guesses. 5yr

I talked to Globex after it happened they are not busting any trades, 18K in the ES in 1 minute, happened in a bunch of markets that should have no relation to one another. Bean Oil traded 1250 in the same minute.. US, TY, ED, NQ C, W and beans all had the same weird volume spike, no news. They...

Do you know that the US government gets more of the money from gasoline sales than any of the oil companies? Let me walk you through this: Exxon's profit margin is 11.23%, so at $3.50/gallon Exxon gets 39 cents, this is after the US government taxed their profits; $29 billion from Exxon...

Do you know that the US government gets more of the money from gasoline sales than any of the oil companies? Let me walk you through this: Exxon's profit margin is 11.23%, so at $3.50/gallon Exxon gets 39 cents, this is after the US government taxed their profits; $29 billion from Exxon...

I understand that, but how many business cycles have we been through since 1945? Please read the article, I found it enlitening. If small caps and large caps have had the same ROR and small caps have been more volatile since 1945, I think there is a large hole in the agrument that small caps...

Great thread so far, haven't had the chance to read the whole thing yet. I did notice you quoting some long held investment beliefs, that aren't entirely true. Particulary the myth that small caps stocks out-perform large cap stocks. http://www.vanguard.com/bogle_site/sp20020626.html...

She is basically selling her house and car for $103K and if she gets the money she will have nothing to show for it (besides being out of debt). She will have no house or no car, right? I wonder where her family will live? I wonder what the current value of the home is? 5yr

There is a definitely a correlation, but you are right that there are many other factors that affect prices. 2001 - 2003 the fed was cutting rates because of fears of deflation, hence the lower commodity prices. 78-82 massive inflation so of course oil and gold were "expensive." 95-98, I don't...