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Sometimes I think I have The Holy Grail, but it turns out to be a Holey Spaghetti Collander. :p

Problem is, the "what" is constantly changing. Maybe if we knew the "why", knowing the "what" would be easy. But of course it might be impossible to know the "why", in which case the "what" is the only hope. :eek: :confused: :p

Gotta wonder if Dinh has ever posted on ET.

Look how much the market has gone up in the past 12 months. Of course almost every stock went up with it, no matter what the technical indicators were saying. Look at 50/125 crossUNDERS and see if that was a good bearish indicator too. I bet it isn't.

IQ tests are bogus. I took a few for fun, and I scored as low as 120, and as high as 165. They are fun though. :p

Just wear a tin foil hat, and you'll be fine. :p

Bombay Sapphire has some advertising campaign on IFC (Independent Film Channel). I saw one really trippy ad. Pretty impressive actually. It's like they want you to think there's hallucinogens in the gin. :p

Just opened a short position this morning. :D Still nervous though, wonder how long before it opens again. Screws up my trading system a bit. :confused:

Ah yes, the difference between "having made" money and "making" money... Or "going to continue to make money". Not to put too fine a point on it. :D

Just thinking out loud: If the market is indeed fractal, "noise" should occur on all time frames, and at all magnitudes. So any noise filtering would have to work on all time frames and magnitudes.

Welcome, FNG's. :D Here's some questions relating to backtesting. Hope I'm not straying too far off topic. I would say the number one rule of back testing, is don't look ahead. A simple, stupid example of this would be entering a trade based on something that happens the day after the...

If you see a trend in a pyramid scheme, and then the pyramid scheme collapses, did the trend ever really exist? :)

So, Harry, you're saying that this Arcsinus law tells us that trends can be illusions. And yet some people abuse this law by saying that the Arcsinus law can actually explain the existence of real trends where none should exist. Did I follow that correctly? :confused:

Yes, there must be an awful lot of traders who never backtest at all. It becomes so immediately obvious once you start backtesting just a little bit. In my very brief backtesting experience the only things I've found that work well at all are very unorthodox or counter-intuitive.

Heh, funny thread. :p I'd be happy to see Damir just call some live trades in a chatroom. It won't prove anything, but he always has some interesting ideas and I'd like to follow along. Anyone can judge for themselves. I don't see why this has to be some kind of officious contest. Too many...

I guessed right too. 3 looks artificial because it's too consistent about moving lower and higher on alternating bars. It makes it look like its following 2 lines moving in parallel.

Yup. This is the number one problem facing traders, I think. Too quick to see what they expect to see, and too reluctant to see the unexpected things that can teach them lessons.

LOL, no! Is that the sort of thing they do? Maybe I'm not really thinking outside the box afterall. :p

Yes I had a sort of curve fit in mind, position exit time as some function of indicator period time. To clarify, there would be a completely different function for each indicator of course. But I see your point about backtesting being better than any theory could be. So I guess it wouldn't be...

Well yeah, like I said, you could backtest it, but I just wonder if there could be some mathematically expressed theory that could explain that optimal indicator period every time.