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I think for most traders, volatility is the key to profitability. If there is little vol, there is little opportunity to profit from changes in price. The volatility is dying out there. It feels like 2005 out there. Like watching paint dry. It is a bad time to start for traders. 2007 was...

I would not be surprised if that is the case. The government knows that the easiest way to pump up the economy besides handing checks to people is to inflate the stock market.

The Fed has pumped in historic levels of liquidity to pump up asset markets that it is hard for this market to go down. Yes, it is too much money chasing too few assets. The value of the assets is meaningless right now, because money has to be put to work or you get 0% on your cash...

Just look at the past trading volume in the SPY. It used to trade much less than it is now. Its a horrible trading environment, but thats what happens in a bull market. Volatility dies out.

The same can be said for futures. It is not as easy as it used to be. I made a post on this a while back that explains the current market environment. http://marketowl.blogspot.com/2009/12/less-dumb-money.html

Its brainless bots blindly buying when dollar goes down, blindly selling when dollar goes up. They got whipsawed today because the market didn't cooperate. Strong dollar, strong stock market. Who whould have thunk it?

LOL. Yes, its the company line at the Fed. Inflation is always under control and deflation is always a threat..... The only gameplan they have at the Fed and the government is to print their way out of the mess.

Well, the UK is less likely to default because they have their own currency, Spain is tied to the euro and can't print their way out of their problems. But fear is starting to percolate for sure. At 1090, we could drop huge easily.

The eurozone is starting to show the cracks as the ratings agencies start to downgrade these sovereign ratings. There is a big down day on the horizon as panic will set in when Greece admits that its insolvent. Not something imminent, but something to look forward to in 2010. Bad news is...

Those brass ball traders hammering stocks just for kicks are probably broke from getting hammered every time stocks bounced back.

I guess the market does the best to fool the crowd. If I see complacency from the CNBC crew on Friday, that will be icing on the cake. A big selloff in the face of complacent investors. Dubai default is just an excuse to sell. This market wants to go lower to remove the froth that has been...

Fundamentals don't matter, the bulls and bears both admit this. Its all liquidity and following the trend. It works until it doesn't. At that point, we drop 50 points in one day.

I hear ya. Trading is like fishing, there is a lot of down time between bursts of action. There are very few people out there who understand what we do, and most think trading is just like gambling. And of course there are those who live and die by the charts or such and such indicator. The...

Its funny how the Fed Chairman always seems untouchable and "seems" to do a good job by keeping rates low and pumping as much money as possible while the dollar cliff dives. Then everyone blames the Treasury secretary for the weak dollar when its Bernanke who helped cause it! Fed chairman...

The markets are much more competitive now than back in Soros' day. But yeah, it is an impressive return. Although what Jim Simons is doing at Renaissance is the most impressive feat in the investing era, pumping out annual returns of over 35% since 1989, after fees for the Medallion fund. The...

Comparing trend following to poker? Geez, are we running out of ideas and material to sell to the public? Folding = taking small losses? Nope. In limit and no limit holdem, there are blinds and no antes. So if you fold outside of the blinds, you are not taking a small loss. You are just...

Athlon, are you a great trader? Do you know what it takes to become a great trader? If a trader doesn't follow a system or a strict set of rules, does that make that person unable to trade well? I've seen more than my share of traders blindly following systems die from a death by a 1000...

You will never become a great trader this way. You will just be some rule based robot who will not know why markets are moving or why your systems are losing money. And there are tons of rule based robots that do what you are doing, probably stepping in front of you. You are throwing away all...

Stock market doesn't want to go down, we have a stronger dollar today and equities are flat. If dollar weakens, bears will be running for cover above 1100.

So true. When those that sold late last year come back to the market when it is 500 SPX points higher than the bottom, they will get crushed again. Wall Street carnival games continue, only the suckers change. The carnival barker remains.