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Nicely put. There are many many patterns with win rate > 60% for reward:risk > 1:1. But exploiting them requires first finding them and then having a sound trading plan. This is a job only for very disciplined and skilled traders. Most retail traders look for quick and painless gains. Got to...

Do you have any statistics about how many key reversals have failed in the past? :)

"Simulations of a random system since SPY inception show that nearly 35% of random traders, human or automated, have made some profit. However, only 1% of random traders were lucky enough to exceed the buy and hold return with dividend reinvestment, estimated at 8.60%. " According to this...

Time series is all you got there. A lot of people who know how to work properly with them make a lot of money at the expense of those who do not know. This blog is using time series and at times the timing of signals is impeccable.

Thank you guys, I will try those but still I think this capability should be available without extra coding.

Why paying for something that is available in other platforms? This is my point. I like Amibroker but I am constrained by this difficulty. I hope they will add this feature, it should not be that hard for them.

There is always a curve being fitted. Posteriori it is the one you got. Think about it: you start optimizing with no target curve and you get curve C1. If you optimized for curve C2=C1+dC, where dC is some small change about C1, you will get close to C1. At the end, the result is the same...

Maybe he does't know while he only looks at his account size growing bigger.:)

Why is that? Does the market know when you are placing a trade that you are a swing trader or something else? Can you explain?

I have two separate systems in Amibroker, system A does mean-reversion and system B does momentum trades. They are uncorrelated. I was never able to figure out how to combine the backtests of these two system in Amibroker without writing extra code. This is not the case in Tradestation or...

If markets are random walks with a drift are we safe to assume that only trade-following methods can make money?

From an hour to 72 hours. Avg is about 8 hours.

Good info, thanks. Useful to me as I am increasing my discretionary exposure to the markets.

0.22 is the expected return per trade, not the expectancy which is 2.2. Actually good, 2.2 units for every unit risked. My real trading expectancy is about 1.2. I was never able to get any higher than that.

Thanks but this is equivalent to running multiple software instances. It will not combine the results like multicharts and tradestation do. I want to use amibroker because I find its charting attractive but I want to be able to load several independent systems on a chart and see the combined...

Did I say I am a tutor? I don't think so. You must do the work yourself. You may start here with this seminal paper and good luck: http://www.cs.rpi.edu/~magdon/ps/journal/drawdown_RISK04.pdf

I was trying to help. I understand that people with no formal background may find the statements outrageous. You must understand that before you can use MC you must know that all random sequences of trades are equally probable. This is not always the case and the results are meaningless. This is...

A MC simulation is a terrible method of analyzing system risk due to the many assumptions that must be true for it to be valid. For example is there serial dependence in your trades? Are all the trade sequences equally probable? Why do you expect that the future will be i.i.d. with the past...

Expected return from random-walk is negative if you include trading costs. Your time-frame is random-walk. ALL patterns in a random-walk are ...random.

Hope instead of knowledge and wishful thinking instead of concrete analysis are the major causes of failure. Next lack of sufficient capital for the job.