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I thought the build-up blew apart in March 2009, AKA the "debt crisis"? That crisis, IMO, was an institutional systemic/counter-party risk debacle, it had huge implications... This stuff here... well, my belief is that Mom and Pop decided to give their "distribution notice" to FOF's, HF's...

Just got back from the gym to find ES at 1102.75, is 1000 the next level here? Jeez, I think the media did a awesome job scaring the shit out of everyone this time around...

I'm honestly kind of impressed (impressed may not be the right word, stunned???) by this market. I did not expect the S&P to be down 6.76% (as I type this) today. Wow. A very good day for me, but, wow.... this is some serious panic. Edit: Still dropping post close.

Thanks. I would be suprised if we don't bounce to 1150 or so, this selling is a bit much... I'm staying out of the ES, but, I did pick up quite a few long equities positions. We'll see.

Out at 1130. +28 pts. I may have left solid money on the table here...

What probability would you guys give for a 1133 touch today?

Last @ 1150.50 Stop moved to 1158.

Stop is 1170. No target (EOD close likely).

One of my ES systems went short here @ 1158. It's a low win % system, but the r/r is high (> 4/1). Not sure what to expect today.

A vertical spread?

Those scales are not a very good measure at all. I've had readings from 14% at my gym to 22% on one at a retail store, all in the same week. People who are "denser", i.e. solid bone structure with more muscle will tend to throw those scales off towards the high end. A good body fat measure...

How much you want to bet on that? I know a few et members personally and they will vouch for exactly what I am and what I look like. So will my wife for that matter.

Wow... to think I actually give some credence to any republican philosophy... People like you are what make me want to disassociate from the party. You, "Hombre", are the reason we, as a nation, are ineffective, and *f--ked*. You narrow minded, quick to judge, and uneducated twats are...

That comment says it all.... Apparently, governing effectively is a military task due to the use of "retreat"... And we're using guns (what else does one reload??). So, we have a republican pres. candidate using military metaphors as a way of explaining government process. And people...

Seems like this debt issue is revealing how incompetent our government really is. Unfortunately, its the republicans who appear to be the most incompetent... Personally (I'm a libertarian FWIW), I think the repubs are sealing their own coffin as a party with this fiasco.

Jeez, why don't you tell us what you really think? :D

Ha, couldn't agree more! Keep it simple guys! Money is made through understanding another traders behavior AND THEN quantifying that behavior. FWIW, take this from a guy who dropped out of a PhD program in engineering/fuzzy logic: Any NN is only as good as its initial rule set...

Frosty, You've been doing this a while (since 2004 if I remember correclty), and, in my opinion, after this long, you should be aware of the inherent pitfalls associated with system design. Have you looked into Pardo's books...

I agree.... I really don't want to be a detractor here, but, those backtests are a huge red flag... intraday systems with proper fill and slippage assumptions AND with a profit factor > 2 are very rare. Anything over 3 is generally subject to very poor fill ratios. Frosty, I hate to say...

Seriously?!? This is your issue: not correlated != not perfectly positively correlated ??? :D FYI, (!=) is "not equal" for some computer languages Haha, what a joke!!! Bill, you realize that you're trolling here, right? Rather than pick up on the point of the post, you pick-up...