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  1. M

    Strategies to reduce leverage on futures?

    I wonder whether the owners of the accounts you manage, are aware of your policy of soliciting free advice from total strangers on how to manage their money. And if they're aware, whether they approve. I wonder whether it might make some of the a little queasy.
  2. M

    Peak-Valley Algorithm

    Define peak. One possible definition among many is: For an OHLC time series of daily price data, day i is a "peak" if and only if both of these conditions hold:High[i] > High[i-1] High[i] > High[i+1]You may have something different in mind. You may want to use a Close-Only time series. You...
  3. M

    What % of crude contracts get closed (without physical delivery)?

    Thanks for your reply. Noted.
  4. M

    How to calculate CTA monthly Advisor Fee and monthly percentage performance?

    I used to think so too. I bought one for something like 30 dollars, from an outfit called Roman Technology. But I only fiddled around with it a few times the first couple of days, and then never used it again. Ultimately I threw it away when migrating from the old laptop to the new one. I've...
  5. M

    Trading System vs Trading Method: how different and what differences?

    POLONIUS: What do you read, my lord? HAMLET: Words, words, words.W. Shakespeare, Hamlet, Act 2, scene 2, 191-192 Neatly captures the essential difference between "Trading System" and "Trading Method", methinks.
  6. M

    What % of crude contracts get closed (without physical delivery)?

    If you don't want to take anybody's word for it, you can calculate a fairly reasonable estimate yourself. Let Numerator = Max Open Interest on any one day Let Denominator = Sum of Volume of all trading days Then (Numerator / Denominator) is a fairly decent approximation of the percent of...
  7. M

    Extremely thin Bund/bobl

    By the EMH, profits == inefficiency. If locals, scalpers, and market makers are generating profits, there is clearly inefficiency in the market. A change that reduces the profitability of locals, scalpers, and market makers, is a change that improves efficiency. This is a Good Thing...
  8. M

    Books about trade management & game theory???

    sjfan I think you're a tad too pessimistic. I think even chapter 1 of an introductory book on game theory can be useful to traders. Simply being exposed to the idea of a "mixed strategy", as defined in game theory, can be an eye-opening experience for a trader. At least, it was for me. It...
  9. M

    Backtesting Vs Trading Index Futures

    That quotation is from a post made eleven weeks ago: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1878403 Have I changed anything in the intervening eleven weeks? No. I still trade these (plural) same systems (plural) on the same very large, globally diversified portfolio of...
  10. M

    RIP George Carlin

    Have a look at the movie "The Aristocrats" from 2005 (IMDB link) in which, One hundred superstar comedians tell the same very, VERY dirty, filthy joke--one shared privately by comics since Vaudeville In my opinion, George Carlin's version was the funniest of them all. Not the filthiest...
  11. M

    Intel won't touch Vista

    http://www.theinquirer.net/gb/inquirer/news/2008/06/23/intel-dumps-vista ACCORDING TO A memo circulating a few weeks ago, it looks like Intel is taking a wise decision and avoiding the Broken OS entirely. Yes, Intel is not going to use Vista on its corporate machines... ever. When a...
  12. M

    Systems development

    Switching to a more reliable (?) image server,
  13. M

    A forum to save images in

    for example
  14. M

    Systems development

    How about
  15. M

    The Future Of Systems Trading?

    As baseball player Wee Willie Keeler said, when asked how he was able to make 200 or more hits in eight consecutive seasons: "Hit em where they ain't." Applying this suggestion to your predicament: Figure out what large numbers of unsophisticated systems traders are doing. Then: Don't do...
  16. M

    shorting the airlines into bankruptcy?

    Be sure to short THEM ALL. The industry is doomed, nobody can possibly turn a profit. Why bother to try predicting who will die first? They will all die in due course, hence: short them all. Thanks for your insightful post.
  17. M

    1 in 10 of Americans Either in Default or Foreclosure on Home Loans

    INCORRECT STATEMENT: 1 in 10 of Americans Either in Default or Foreclosure on Home Loans CORRECT STATEMENT: 1 in 10 Home Loan Mortgages in America is Either in Default or Foreclosure. 4.5 million out of a total of 45 million home loan mortgages. But remember: large numbers of Americans...
  18. M

    Optimization Speed

    I'm pleased with the speed of Trading Blox software when running parameter sweeps (also known as optimization). It's fast enough to do multivariable sweeps at fine granularity, letting you get a detailed picture of system robustness. Here is an example of a fine granularity two-parameter...
  19. M

    Profit from market neutral options writing - possible or not?

    Possible, yes. Ansbacher has done so, for years. He has proven it is possible. Are you as talented as Ansbacher? It will take 20 years to find out. You can write uncovered ("naked") options, or covered ("spread") options. They have different risk/reward profiles. Ansbacher offers both...
  20. M

    Trading multiple markets or one market ?

    If you trade using a fully mechanical system which runs on a computer, it's easy to apply the system to many different markets simultaneously: the computer does all the work. If you apply it to "N" number of markets, your resulting equity curve is a lot smoother and less gut-wrenching to trade...
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