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I'm not touching the markets for the next 3 days, too volatile

by the way I'm out of the market for the time being and will not trade these moves.

I think we hit 4850 today and target for the end of this move 4950-5000 max in the next 5 days. 4850 will be easy to hit as a lot of stop are placed around 4820.

what a move in 5 minutes, stops must have been taken out

well, it tells you a lot about the way quants think. When you know what others will do, well, that's invaluable info.

yes, on daily bars. this is just a proxy for trend following signals that you can use to approximate trend followers positioning.

for a good understanding of quant trading, I suggest the Litterman book "modern investment management - an equilibrium approach". Most of the quant models that have been stuffed in April derive their approach from Litterman's equilibrium approach. On the web you should be able to find...

94 and 28 MA are a good proxy for long term CTA positioning. Good signals will capture moves over a 12/15 months timeframe. Whipsaws will occur over 3 months periods. I think we're entering into a whipsaw period.

now

first, it started with a piece of research saying one should buy the close/after hours and sell at the open the next day. One should have done excatly the opposite. futures were systematically pushed lower after hours to suck in intraday short sellers during european hours. 2 hours into...

866 is the number :)

the drop will start in exactly 58 minutes

this looks like pigs in space

is it GS or the US administration?

absolutely, I think short is a no brainer but one should allow for enough room in his trading to survive sucking events. I have cut the size of my positions by more than 50% in order not get whipsawed by the "invisible hand"

being sucked is not always a nice experience :)

ES going up 10 points in 15 minutes when everyone is back from lunch and the machine start their end of the day mad buying, it's a sucking or aspiring event, like being lifted by an ascending current we've seen this several times over the last 10 days

very low volumes, I'd be wary of a sucking event

there is only so many times they can play the same trick again, until they start playing it agaisnt themselves

sounds good, why not 4700 puts? I didn't check the skew