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  1. J

    I see the dow going to 14800

    Someone didn't take their meds again...
  2. J

    I see the dow going to 14800

    Using intraday lows it's a bit more than that. Around 13% for the S&P. We need another 50%+ correction for stocks to get even close to fair value again.
  3. J

    Mutual Funds Face New U.S. Rules for Preventing Investor Runs

    Cronyism once again. I'd like to see the SEC connections with big mutual fund companies. This only helps those companies and (maybe temporarily) the stock and bond markets. It's bad for investors. Aren't the penatlies for "overtrading" (like more than twice a year) at Vanguard and other places...
  4. J

    SEC Chair Faces New Conflict Claims Over Husband’s Legal Work

    Cronyism at its finest but nothing new. Maybe Eric Holder and Jon Corzine will be appointed to investigate--then exonerate--them.
  5. J

    Rates unchanged!!

    Nah, I think ZIRP is losing its effectiveness.
  6. J

    Rates unchanged!!

    We've now had 17 straight months in which the Fed's employment/inflationary "goals" were met, and they're still scared to death of a 0.25% rate hike. Release Date: July 31, 2013 “The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and currently...
  7. J

    How to make money from the Fed’s interest-rate decision?

    I agree with the others. However, I will say this looks like a classic "buy the rumor, sell the news" event. Stocks have risen substantially the last 2 days, expecting the Fed to hold rates steady. I think they will, with the caveat that a Dec. hike is quite possible. From there, I'm not sure...
  8. J

    Trend Following Is Not Predicting

    The public also has no sell discipline. Nor do they trade in a double-digit number of markets to diversify. Go shut up and color.
  9. J

    Isn't It Amazing?

    We' re rallying on hopes of Chinese stimulus. I'd rather hang my hopes on "thin air." http://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-shares-wary-ahead-china-004316997.html
  10. J

    s&p 500 Death Cross signal, reliable or not?

    True, except for the "but so will every decent pullback" part. Since 2012, the best pullbacks have simply been the price touching the 100 to 200 Day MA areas. This was also true for most of the 2004-2007 bull markets and the late 1990s. The death cross is no holy grail, but it should make one...
  11. J

    s&p 500 Death Cross signal, reliable or not?

    As always, data/research > opinions. This pretty well sums it up: http://quantifiableedges.com/blog/ "So while not a reliable timing device, it is notable that the market has failed to generate long-term profits under the Death Cross. Traders that are concerned with preserving capital could...
  12. J

    Al Brooks - Al Crooks, Charlatan

    I've never bought any of his stuff, but this doesn't surprise me. Ditto for the pure price action "gurus" on various forums, including here. None of them can produce statistically-significant evidence of their profitability.
  13. J

    Linda Raschke’s 12 Technical Trading Rules

    You've managed to ramble for 10 pointless paragraphs. You could've done a Google search in that time. There's still not one iota of evidence that (1) her rules have any edge in modern markets (2) she's had a profitable track record for significant period.
  14. J

    Linda Raschke’s 12 Technical Trading Rules

    Yeah, that's my question...and it's still not answered.
  15. J

    Linda Raschke’s 12 Technical Trading Rules

    I know Raschke is one of the more respected trading educators, but does she have any documented track record? Has she managed money? Have any of these rules been systematically tested and built into automated systems? Are the first and last hour rules just as true in this age of HFT? I've tried...
  16. J

    This chart shows why September could be an ugly month for stocks

    Yeah, if you like things like the 1987 crash, a big drop in early October 2002, an even bigger drop in late Sep/early Oct 2008, etc. Near the end of October is when seasonality picks up.
  17. J

    Fully automated fast food restaurant opens in San Francisco

    The "middle class wages for fast food workers!" crowd will get their just deserts if this becomes widespread.
  18. J

    Is The Market REALLY Going To Close Green... After Dow -1100 This Morning?

    Uh, not exactly. Buying in the spring of 2000 or late 2007 weren't good buying opportunities. If you had a crystal ball and knew to buy in March '03 or March '09 you did well, though.
  19. J

    Pension funds in China now allowed to invest....this is out of control

    Uh, no. All of them reinforce what I said. The first article states "These accounts are not limited to the narrow selection of investments that are typically offered inside employer-sponsored retirement plans, such as 401(k) or 403(b) plans." The other articles say something very similar. Just...
  20. J

    Futures down almost 2% - Monday doesn't look so good

    Yeah, the S&P is down about 10% from its high including this 3% overnight drop in futures...and who knows if it will get worse or recover when U.S. markets open. There are a lot of issues and potential problems, but we're still in "healthy correction" territory right now. And if nothing else...
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