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I only trade for big moves. Where do big moves first appear? Breakouts. Adjust your risk/reward accordingly. Scalping breakouts for small wins is sure death to the account due to the higher proportion of false breakouts. If one is in for big moves, the falsies are of limited consequence...

Don't be hard on yourself, if you have one strategy that is positive expectancy over long periods, you can make money on that setup. Next step would be to determine if it's scalable. One does not need to know everything or even a lot to be a successful trader.

If you have been swing trading, I assume successfully, why switch to day trading? The usual progression is the other way. Day to swing and finally a position trader. It's a LOT of high speed work to grind it out on a daily basis. YMMV

For me, I would have been hesitant given the time of day and there already was a nice up and down run. I would expect a bit of distribution after that. Looking forward to more posts on the topic.

It is not predicting IMO, but rather improving my probability otherwise I would never get skunked or have a losing trade. maybe it's just semantics?

Baloney! I've been fishing for 45+ years and some great (and even record) fish that I've caught were not supposed to be there according to local lake experts. The idea of fishing as in trading is to eliminate the 80-90% of the water that is unlikely to hold significant numbers of fish...

If you would just let it expire, you would retain the $180 premium and not incur another commission cost.

I also found YM more profitable in short term trades and switched from ES. Rarely did I find short term runs more profitable in ES.

Agree 100%, I used to flail away with every indicator known to man. Then I realized to just use my eyes and see where "big" moves develop from. Since then, after backtesting, I have found couple of setups that offer 2:1 reward:risk and slightly over 50% win rate. I now make money consistently...