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In addition to Markus Keil, I introduce another german star trader, Max Schulze. Max began in 2015 with 30,000 €, now his equity has grown to close to 1.5 million € . In 9 years ! The book shown is in english, "The Commitments of Traders Bible: How to Profit from Insider Market Intelligence"...

If you are satisfied with a 200% return in 16 years aka tripling your money in 16 years, I stick to my price target of around 56,000 - 60,000 points in the NDX / Nasdaq 100 in the year 2040 . Volatiliy calibrated ATR has generated great returns on the long-side (remember, try NOT to short the...

It's holiday in my native Germany, but capital markets of course never sleep. Peter Brandt, interviewed by Jack Schwager for "Unknown Market wizards", has a pretty astounding track record as a market forecaster. He is the founder of Factor Services LLC . He has switched from bullish to...

I suggested buying shares of Koninklijke Philips ((ISIN: NL0000009538) when they traded around 12.80 € (page 28, #274) Today, the share price has made a big jump, reason is the expected penalty for the damage by a product sold is much lesser than analysts and the Philips C-suite expected...

For the german readers of this thread (if there are any at all), I copy & paste this from my Facebook wall. This guy called Alfred Maydorn got it completely wrong with a company called Varta (VAR1 on Tradingview), he was bullish -> the share price has since then dropped almost 95% ! "Oh...

Today (I write this 15 minutes before the US stock market opens), Tesla (TSLA) will report earnings. Close on 04/23/2024 was 142.05 US$ . My impression / opinion ? The smart money crowd has by and large ridden this bull and now is looking for better opportunities. Quote Ross Gerber (Gerber...

Part III and final of my mini "Why following the advice of Robert Prechter will RUIN you !". If you still think, "Prechter may not be as bad as these forecasts make him appear to be", simply google for him. I don't know anyone with such a lousy track record as market forecaster.

Prechter Part II (from 1993, LATimes article) -> https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1993-06-11-fi-2172-story.html If you can market yourself smartly, it seems you can survive and make good money even with a horrible track record in this business.

I've mentioned, with Bruce Kovner and especially David Tepper, two all-time greats. It is always worth listening to them when they speak. Will they get it right all the time ? No, of course not. Nobody will. My "good deed" - I hope I have saved at least one investor from listening or following...

Yesterday, 02/04/2024, General Electric has completed its spin-off of General Electric Vernova (ISIN : US36828A1016). The shares of General Electric itself of course have been adjusted down in their price, my entry price when I suggested buying the shares two months ago would now be around 109...

Thanks for the kind words. It's so important to remember that with information now being processed at fractions of a second, markets are of course superefficient. Another words, it gets more and more difficult to find investment opportunities that may generate an excess return over the S&P...

The Nasdaq 100 / NDX was in early 2000 (now 24 years) overvalued by any stretch of the imagination, topping out for years at around 5,200 points . It's not an exact science, valuation, but I'd say the fair value was around 2,500 points back then. I expect a growth of around 110% all ten years...

The fee / transactionbased pricing model of brokers makes high frequency daytrading almost "mission impossible". Many traders have to generate grotesque annual returns just to break even. Daytrading is an almost guaranteed way to go broke.

For american readers of this thread, Fidelity's Select Software & IT Services Portfolio (FSCSX) was introduced in july of 1985, now almost 40 years old, and has generated an annual return of > 16% ! https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/performance-and-risk/316390822

@Slope Trader : it is alive, but probably not as easy anymore as just applying a 200 <whatever timeframe> on an underlying and then go long when it crosses from below, short from above. Too many whipsaws, it would not work. However, a favorite market wizard of mine (interviewed in 1992 for...

"Renaissance now out of business because there are no counterparties left" - that'd be the headlines if the Medallion fund had not paid out a big chunk of its winnings on a regular basis. If you compound @ > 60% a year, liquidity can become an issue. Sad but true : the funds still availabe to...

General Electric now has jumped to above 146 US$, I stick to my price target but I believe it may be reached until 2027 . This is the current portfolio ("current" meaning with data available to the public thanks to 13-F filings) of my favorite market wizard, David Tepper...

Franziska, Du bist so herrlich .... DEUTSCH ! Germans unite !

I think this year, 2024, the NDX / Nasdaq 100 will likely hit 20,000 points. The bull market is so strong, disappointing earnings by Snap, maybe a rate hike by the FED - a short pause, the the leading indexes continue to climb. Currently at around 17,572 .

General Electric (ISIN : US3696043013) may double until 2030, from now around 137 US$ to 280 US$ or even more. I believe the company can now regain its competitive edge as a conglomerate, its financial services division probably did more harm than good but now it's full speed ahead, CEO...