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I have a stock where there is constantly stock offered at $13.95, this has been going on for a couple of weeks, since July 1, actually. At the same time, volume has dried up and now the stock trades within a 10c range. (Stock is DTEA). So my question is why volume has dried up. Is it because a)...

The 41% assumes that the capital was deployed 100% of the time and is a a best case performance. His real performance is probably less than 41%.

CMG was going to do $15 in earnings before the troubles, so lets take that down to $13 figuring that some people have permanently changed their habits. And then applying the old growth rate as a multiple, that gets us to $390. So it seems pretty fairly valued making some generous assumptions...

what's rong with mf

OK but the point is that nobody would hire a pilot who says "give me ten years in the cockpit and a couple million dollars and I'll show you I can fly a plane." That's obviously not sustainable. There has to be a better way.

If you have an obvious edge then it won't take 10 years. If you don't have an obvious edge, sure, you can say it will take 10 years. Somebody will eventually come up with a video game you can play and find out in a couple of hours whether you/r system has any edge. Then instead of hiring...

OK so he's not flashing fat stacks, that's true. But he does have a record of 264 trades. I don't think the time period is as informative as the number of trades. If he were a buy and holder who made a half-dozen buys/sells a year, it might be plausible. But we have 264 trades to judge. If there...

How can he be a "legit guy" when he obviously can't trade? What is the meaning of "legit" if it includes Jon Boorman?

2 and a half years of results isn't enough of a track record? And Boorman is a guru, he sells his premium picks on his site and on marketfy so he is selling his demonstrably sub-par advice for $95 month, that definitely qualifies as a guru. My point is that the gurus have no self-imposed...

It's always fun to look at some real trading results. Here are some results of a guy who sells a premium trading service. http://jonboorman.com/premium/ SUMMARY AS OF 7/1/16 OPEN:- Total 9: 8 winners, 1 loser.Average win +16.0%, average loss -1.5%. CLOSED:- Total 255: 109 winners, 146...

They would have been so much better off if they'd blown it on coke and strippers.

well I did get one thing right - a break above 10 month meant that bottom was in, that was correct (10 month = 200 day).

it's funny how wrong the experts got the quick bottom in oil (and me too, but I'm not an expert). The poeple on CNBC (Kilduff, Stork, Gartman) were all bearish, Goldman Sachs energy analyst was bearish (lower for longer) and some people on Twitter were all bearish (@energyrosen, who shut down...

well you guys called the open pretty well. we had consensus mean of $2.50 and that's what we got

down $2.5 a barrel to $37.84

Hard to say where sentiment is positioned, but prevailing sentiment is "lower for now but definitely going higher." That is so universally believed but it assumes that there is no moderation in demand in the next 18-36 months. But that would be like 10 years without recession. Any recession and...

ALWAYS BLAME IRAN FIRST

markets do crazy things, look at the CRB, it is at 25 year lows. If I told you 20 years ago that China would be a massive economy far larger than Japan and that commodities would be lower than they were back then (and they were at crazy lows back then) you probably would not have believed me...

Here are some long term charts. If these 10 and 20 year trend lines are broken, it would indicate that something fundamental has changed in the oil market.

The bearish case on the *oil stocks* is a little different than the bearish case on oil. The oil stocks are priced for much higher oil, not just Chevron and Exxon but the crappy little E&Ps are priced for much higher oil. Any realization that oil is not going back to $80 in a straight shot and...