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I know a guy who invested heavily in BTC in 2015. By the end of 2017 he was rich beyond his wildest dreams, and then came the crash. After a few months, when it became clear that the bull market wasn't about to resume, he started cashing out. As his fortune dwindled over the next 12 months, so...

As part of a prudent asset allocation strategy, I see no harm in holding a small amount of BTC. With gold the general consensus is usually no more than 5-10% of the portfolio.

I doubt many tech/meme/crypto investors bother with boring stuff like that. Although one day they may wish they had...

Arguments for putting your savings in BTC: BTC has the potential to go up 10 or 20-fold over the next few years. With inflation much higher than interest rates, money in a bank savings account will just continue to get eaten away. With all the money printing, the days of FIAT currencies like...

What makes me uneasy are posts implying that it's a forgone conclusion that BTC will reach $500k or $1M, and that all you have to do is HODL. No-one can guarantee that it won't crash big time at some point and take years (if ever) to recover. (BTC has never been through a 2008, 2000, 1970s or...

Even though it was capable of delivering 1000% a year? :D

If the SHTF then throwing money away at 10% per year might seem like the least worst option. Unless we get hyperinflation, USD will remain a safe haven in times of severe market stress. During a crash, give me a choice between USD and everything else (including gold) and I'd always choose USD...

Does your algorithm only work with the futures contract? I'm just wondering if there are other palladium derivatives you could use eg. options, ETF?

It's a long time since we had a bear market proper, and younger investors won't ever have experienced this. The next one could be brutal like 2008, 2000, or even 1929.

Yes but what we really want to know is, will you eat your dick if it doesn't? :D

Was the OP messing with people when they said the holy grail of trading does exist but only for a very very small minority? Even if it is only known by a very very small minority, it would be hard to keep secret.

If you take an S&P500 stock, with a similar market cap to BTC, I imagine most of the trading activity would come from institutions (pension funds etc). Retail trading would only make up a tiny %. I'm guessing with BTC it is different? Perhaps the opposite, with retail dominating? If so, that...

Yep, I remember them extolling HYP (high yield portfolio).

IMO, this IS precisely the "obvious" that the OP was referring to. The "obvious pre-requisite to [successfully] trading any market", is finding a method (an XYZ) which works. If you do XYZ, and keep doing XYZ, it will make money. That is why the OP was dismissive of risk management and...

Gold, the other "anti-inflation/anti-fiat" asset, isn't doing much either. Perhaps the bankers are right, and this inflation thing will just be a short lived effect.

That's my thinking too. Some assets will do worse than others but I'm not sure anything will be immune. I certainly wouldn't sleep at night with my life savings in BTC if the SHTF.

BTC could well go up 1000% at some point in the future. It just might need to crash by 80% beforehand. :D Joking aside, it's clear from eyeballing the chart that the growth is not as spectacular as it once was. Which is kind of what you'd expect. Because of it's size (mkt cap), it takes an...

You mean the one that started in 1980? https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart

Yes but I'm guessing the majority are down at the poor end. :D

I guess the question is, how profitable? I would have thought it very unlikely that risk management could turn a poor system into a stellar performer. Which is why I reckon the "obvious" is: if you want to achieve an exceptionally good P&L, you better start with an exceptionally good system.