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    Technical case for the top being in?

    We are within spitting distance of DOW 10,000, only 150 points away today from today's high. No way are they going to let it get this close and not push it over. Barring some unforseen disaster, you can probably write 10,000 in the books... after that... we'll see.
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    How to stop picking tops or bottoms

    It depends what you mean by "picking" a top or a bottom. If you're waiting for a reversal signal to form (which takes time), then that in my book is not what is meant by "picking" a top. I would say that "picking" a top in the context we are talking about means picking it right as the trend...
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    How to stop picking tops or bottoms

    One other thing. I hope you realize that double and triple leveraged ETFs are actually synthetic instruments that have time decay built into them. In other words, if you hold these things for weeks or months, they are going to lose value even if the price of the underlying instrument stays the...
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    How to stop picking tops or bottoms

    Alright, let's look at this chart. Now tell me: which way is this thing going in the larger trend right now? Up or down? I think you know the answer. What you should have been doing is waiting for a retracement to the lower trendline and then initiating a long position, not looking for a...
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    How to stop picking tops or bottoms

    Why exactly are you thinking that the market is ahead of itself and needs to correct? It is for fundamental reasons, like what you think about the economy? If so, let 2009 be your lesson about why all that stuff is nothing but a bunch of crap. You can't trade off of fundamentals, because...
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    Unfortunately, this is me

    This is exactly why people should not trade off of fundamentals. So many people on this planet look at the economy, decide what they THINK it's going to do, and then place a bet in the market based on this. The thing to remember is that the market always LEADS the economy by 6 months. We...
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    Being a Perma bear sucks

    That's because most bulls happen to be Joe Q. Public, who is pretty stupid in general. The smartest of all traders are those that are neither bulls nor bears - the people who just adapt to the market and always follow the path of least resistance.
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    Only I can pick the top: Short 1049 ES

    Well, since we just hit 1071.75, I guess the OP is now stopped out. This is why you never short into the face of an uptrend - you wait for the trend energy to die out, for a range to form, and then for price to start accelerating to the downside. But in general, making a swing trade short call...
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    How to stop picking tops or bottoms

    It's what a lot of people do, especially newbies. From what he said originally, I wouldn't be surprised if that's what he was doing...
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    Why is Ballmer still the CEO of Microsoft.

    Actually, I think I know what it is. Gates is a shy, quiet, withdrawn, internally focused person. His strength is in seeing the big picture of things, and understanding where supply/demand for technology is going to go in an aggregate way... but what he is NOT experienced at, and certainly...
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    How to stop picking tops or bottoms

    No, not if you wait for a reversal signal first - like a consolidation pattern, candlestick formation, VSA divergence, or something else. I do that all the time myself. What I was talking about was people who try to pick bottoms or tops in the middle of a strong trend that is going against them...
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    1/4% Tax on all stock trades pushed in NY Times today

    Let's say you're a producer/hedger in a commodity, and you need to offset a large position or buy a large position in something for your business, the only way you can do that is if there is volume in the market. If there is no speculation, there will be no volume, and the only person willing to...
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    How to stop picking tops or bottoms

    No problems - sounds like you're on the right track... good luck!
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    Why is Ballmer still the CEO of Microsoft.

    OK, here's another one! <object width="425" height="344"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/8zEQhhaJsU4&hl=en&fs=1&"></param><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true"></param><param name="allowscriptaccess" value="always"></param><embed...
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    Why is Ballmer still the CEO of Microsoft.

    How an idiot like Ballmer ever got to be the CEO of Microsoft in the first place is a mystery that I will never understand. Bill Gates is one of the smartest guys around, but keeping Ballmer around for so long had to be his all-time stupidest decision. And it was so obvious right from the...
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    I'm Assuming

    It would make sense that we get a pullback here. We probably can't get to DOW 10,000 straight from here, it would be too big of a move and would really get overextended. They want to create a bull-trend, not a parabolic blow-off. Now is a great time to pull back a bit, and then reset for another...
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    I'm Assuming

    I'm not. As I posted earlier, 1062 to 1063 is resistance on the daily chart from a trendline perspective. Also there's a lot of bullishness here on ET and shorts capitulating - that's not a good sign for a further rally. A lot of churn here at the high right now, not really going anywhere. They...
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    I'm Assuming

    Seems to be just churning at the high... not a great sign for a spike into the close.
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    I'm Assuming

    Volume just picked up... approaching the high now...
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    I'm Assuming

    Pushing back up to 1062.75 now. We'll have to see a break of the daily high at 1063.75 with some volume before I'm convinced... right now it feels a bit weak. Volume needs to pick up...
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