Search results

No one has answered my question? Maybe the answer is simply somewhere between a hope and a prayer. For those interested, Paul Wilmott says "The correct statement is that N(d2') is the required probability, where d2' is the usual d2 but with real drift rate instead of risk-free rate.(Having...

I just posted this over at Wilmott. Those guys couldn't agree on an answer. I suspect that while their answers our likely more theoretically correct the good folks at elitetrader might be able to give me a bit more robust and useful. "I have been following this thread with great interest. I...

I'll search for it and post it there. Thanks.

I just posted this over at Wilmott. Those guys couldn't agree on an answer. I suspect that while their answers our likely more theoretically correct the good folks at elitetrader might be able to give me something a bit more robust and useful. "I have been following this thread with great...

Gold hits $800 an ounce as JPM unwinds major short derivatives position at 700:1 leverage. JPM collapses in the process. See www.lemetropolecafe.com This is of course wild speculation but an interesting sidebet nonetheless. Was dissapointed I didn't buy those Dec 15 puts at 0.30 earlier...

This thread has attracted a lot of attention, controversy, and dissagreement. I think it is excellent that we have all found something that makes us think. There has definitely been a lot of work put into both forward and back testing in an effort to understand the nature of this system. I...

I'm going to step out on a limb here and make a bold statement: This system is asinine. The fib numbers are meaningless. The signal is seemingly meaningless as it has been stated you could take the same signal as a short or long op and get the same result. The stop logic seems screwy to me...

Tah, I just wrote an extensive message regarding this system when my computer froze up. I'll make it brief. Yes I've tested the system as I coded it on many different time frames. None seemed better than the others. Today I added the lagging entry to the system (i.e. enter only after...

I am sure I coded it correctly. It took me a while until I refined the criteria for the pattterns enough. They now interpret things as accurately as you would visually. Admittedly I coded this system when the stockhits thread was in its infancy. While I had the full disclosure on the...

Someone mentioned earlier the Pardise Trading system at stockhits.com. I recently completed coding this system in Wealth-Lab and would like to share some of my experience with it. To explain a bit the Paradise System mainly looks for reversals indicated by various candlestick patterns. It...

This study confirms what Mr. Twain was espousing years ago that the ignorant have more confidence. Enjoy the link: http://www.zenspider.com/RWD/Thoughts/Inept.html Chris

Hah. I went to the initial optionetics seminar recently on a whim one afternoon. It is somewhat respectable but does not give the full picture of options trading. Check out the resulting email correspondence I had with one of their representatives after they tried to sell me their course...

Incredible Thread! Keep it up guys. I hope to contribute later.

There is some decent footage of the pits in a PBS Nova Special called Trillion Dollar Bet. It is an excellent documentary about the development of the Black-Scholes (Merton) option pricing model. Some great interviews with Scholes and Merton as well as some other well renown economists and...

I love Taleb's work. I've took his work to heart both in my trading and in my personal life. We can debate his strategies and find issue with his methods here or there but I think the main thrust of his thinking is correct. Life is rife with unforseen and unpreventable risks. One can either...

Wealth Lab has some advanced money management capabilities. It allows you to write money management scripts to overlay on your systems during backtesting. I'm not sure if this is what you were looking for. Check it out at www.wealth-lab.com. The fully functional demo program should get you...

This thread is very interesting. I remember reading in Liar's Poker about traders playing games trying to come up with trading strategies for various worldwide calamaties. These guys would say buy up US potato futures after Chernobyl since many European potato farmers crops would be out of...

On the topic of option spreads, I used to trade spreads and put some research into the historical movement of the NDX and QQQ which resulted in a trading system. The trading system presented a small edge, telling when to switch between short premium and long volatility positions. Unfortunately...

Thanks guys. I do realize the importance of missed stops and have coded my systems to reflect what actual prices I would actually be able to obtain on my way out. As you guys note there is sometimes not too huge a difference in performance between some percentage stops because of these...

Thank you for such prompt and descriptive replies. I should have trusted myself a little bit more. I've actually read Mr. Seykota's paper at Galt before and I do like his description of "heat". This is a very interesting topic to me. I've done a lot of investigating lately between leverage...