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Thought things of yesterday will repeat... 03/27/07 -2.6% (big risk on account!!!)

1 year trend is UP Please add your comments!

INDU, SPX, NDX and RUT compared -> Trend is UP on a 10 day timeframe

Market Direction is UP INDU Signals Enter at +15 Exit with TS 15 at grid Result 14*15 points = 210 points

I am happy to report a huge plus today 03/26/07 +18.2% Initial risk this morning was about 19% of the account, but I added positions during the last hour of trading today, increasing my risk to about 70%!!! of my account. Therefore I was more than 85% (70%/2+50%) sure that it will work in...

03/23/07 +10.7% Risk on the account to achieve this success was 52.74%. I have been not afraid risking that high percentage today. I was more than 76% (see Kelly formular above) sure that it would work. If I would have lowered exposure to make 2% the account risk would have been much lower...

03/22/07 +16.0% Max. Risk was about 35% of the total account. That means that in case of a wrong forecast I would have lost up to 35% of my account yesterday. Realized Reward to Risk ratio has been 0.45 (16/35); about 1:2.

Movements following a 25 point wave can be used to enter - exit with trailing stop - or when at 25 point loss

Avoid fading big waves (100+)

Signals for the INDU Enter at +75 with trailing stop 50 (trailing on grid) Current trend is up (10 days timeframe)

Low risk setups are with the trend and promise a high reward compared to the inevitable risk (see attached graphics). I have made all mistakes a novice can make today. Shorting options against an announcement. Where is my long years experience? 03/21/07 -17.7%

Met my target today. 03/20/07 +2.0% with 23.8% max. account risk. That mean I was more than 61.9% sure of winning today. Basic element was that I was betting with the up-trend to the close. A TREND IS A FRIEND! Dont't fight trend. Stay out, if you get mixed signals. Take a break and...

First stocks with slope up.

DJIA and some of it's components compared on a 4 years timeframe

03/19/07 +20.5%; max account risk 64% today

VIX options implied volatility is very high. Puts have a much higher IV than calls. Stikes 15, 16, 17, 18 April (Call IV/Put IV) 56/118, 71/123, 72/129, 80/135 http://www.ivolatility.com/options.j?ticker=vix&R=0

More dedicated work. Less reading. More planning. Switching back to selling time and convexity. 03/16/07 +7.2%

Mark I will buy not every wave. That's the secret. The initial wave can be also of a 1 unit length. If I have a 5 unit wave that can mean to by or not to by depending on looking back on historical data. I hope that have fun doing some backtesting.

Actal development. RUT is very choppy. But systems are possible with wider stops.

I have added the ESTX50 and the DAX. The ESTX50 has made the biggest sell off followed by the DAX. Look also at the volume ESTX50 has huge volume also compared to the ES!