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The direction of the trend is the most important thing. Thats followed by trend line breaks and 50% reactions. In addition I use just the closing line of previous day. No pivots! No tick or trin! But I look at RUT and NQ if I am trading the ES or the Dow. Market can't work against...

murray Sundog please look at attached graphics. Despite Trendline Break Market Direction is still UP

Yesterday I missed my target by 5 points. Today I reached my target. Only 3 points more. Is it luck? I have have the feeling that the market to me today was forgiving. Thats a very good feeling for me after I have lost 2/3 of my payroll the last days. But it is also a request to...

NDX is in an UP-trend. Long since 1800 Trailing stop 1800

AAPL is in an UP-trend. Next long signal is at 95. Trailing stop is 90 to be trailed on 5 point grid.

I more and more get the impression, that writing naked puts is a good strategy for the VIX. If money management is applied it could work very well. Any thought about that strategy from your side?

The market is very forgiving. 04/20/07 +22.5% I played long stangles today. Statistics becomes a more important role right now. I am investing more time in developing systems than trading. When I have made big profits, there was no need to invest too much of my time into innovation...

Possible scenarios for the INDU based on 10 day trend assessment on a 25 point grid (see attached)

04/19/07 -16.3% I am not good at trading at the moment. Fighting trends and hope. Can't work. No need to max out or force something. Why the pressure?

Current Trend for RUT is UP on a 10 day timeframe basis Long since 826 TS and reverse point 824 (TS826 after positions is reversed, trail on grid)

Trends for Indexes on a 10 day basis. INDU 50 point grid UP SPX 5 point grid UP NDX 10 point grid UP RUT 5 point grid DOWN!

Plugging in full Kelly k=1 and for example d=0.1 one can see that the probability of losing 90% (=(1-0.1)*100%) of the current bankroll is whole 10%! The numbers drop very quickly with lower Kelly fractions. For example, for half Kelly the probability of losing 90% of the bankroll is just 0.1%...

The Dow has a specific profile of moves from close to close on a daily basis. I have attached a graphics showing how much the INDU fluctuated in the last 65 days (absolute close to close comparison). Below table gives you an overview about occurences of events (second row) for specific...

04/18/07 +12.2% Big losses always trigger a lot of analytic work. I like to use spreadsheets. Applied statistical data. Traded with the trend. Made some good decisions. There is a long way to go. But I am confident.

04/17/07 -37.3% I have to find out what's going on.

Trend for INDU is UP * Buy dips * Sell Rallies * Use tight trailing stops * Apply risk management

murray I agree Qs / NDX is weak compared to INDU, SPX and RUT. But nevertheless the general direction is UP (see attached 1 year comparison). That would mean: Buy dips. Sell rallies. Any opinions from other traders?

Actual signal is short from 1830 TS 1835 Wide swings with a lot of scalping opportunities as well. NDX seems to be a mixed index. Feedback welcome!

RUT still in upmove Entry: from 814 (crossing level intraday) Exit: SL at 828 Profit target: no profit target Position can be reversed at 828 with TS at 830

04/16/07 -23.6% Loss too big because of emotional trading after expected loss. I did hesitate to close a loosing position early. Hope...