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  1. J

    my story

    p2: Many of the ones who make it are the ones who have nothing to fall back on. :) My dad has told me "have something to fall back on", I respond: "why should I waste time with something to fall back on if I'm not going to fall back?" ;) Trading IS a hard game. Not because it is...
  2. J

    April 1st?

    Technically, I guess he is right... But his scenerio borders on the paranoid. What he outlines is a typical bubble, which happens with or without trailing stops. :)
  3. J

    What if....

    The only way I believe a computer could out-do a very skilled discretionary trader is with highly advanced artificial intelligence. The system would need to learn to trade much the way a human does. This kind of technology is still very far off... And well, to tell you the truth, it scares the...
  4. J

    Accounting for Traders

    I wondered if anyone knew of any good excel spreadsheets or stand alone program for accounting out there designed with traders in mind? Right now I use quicken,(really limited) and I'm starting to create an excel spreadsheet to make things more flexible and feature rich.... But if there is...
  5. J

    Continuation Probabilities

    The gamblers fallacy is important to be aware of when considering your individual trades... (If your last 5 trades are losers, your next trade has the same odds of winning as the last 5, because each trade is statistically independent) But, unlike coin flips or the results of a random...
  6. J

    Continuation Probabilities

    Sorry... Me again. :) You probably wont see a bell curve, but rather the right half of a bell curve. (1 day will probably have the highest frequency)
  7. J

    Continuation Probabilities

    Just a little addition... Once you have the data, just use the "frequency" function in excell to sort the data so you can chart it. You most likely will see a bell curve type chart. So yes, I'm sure that after 7 days up, 8 days is less probable. But you should always remember to take other...
  8. J

    Continuation Probabilities

    This is a rather easy study to perform using excel. It doesnt take a academic researcher to do it. ;) I'm not the sharpest guy when it comes to programming and advanced excel usage... But I've used macro programming in VBA in excell to do studies similiar to what you are suggesting. Just...
  9. J

    Over educated.

    Swoop: Just out of curiosity... Why did you name the thread "over educated". :)
  10. J

    Dial Up access to IB?

    I cant believe so many people praise cable for not being able to loose a connection. What the heck is wrong with my providers local connection? (At&t) Connection is lost all the time. Sometimes 10 minutes, sometimes 2 minutes, sometimes all day long! Every day I loose connection for at...
  11. J

    experienced trader please help

    Greatballs... Dont take the saying 100% literally. Some profits will, and should turn into losses. If you make a penny on a trade you dont lock it in right a way. You have to give it some room. What I personally do is raise stops in accordance with the risk I initially took. For...
  12. J

    ADSL vs Cable

    I have AT&T and I am getting sick of it. Sometimes it is off for 5 minutes at a time, sometimes 20, sometimes an hour, sometimes all day! When it works it is fine... But it is HIGHLY unreliable. I live in an area with pretty much every option available to me. (I live in Silicon Valley)...
  13. J

    doing the wrong thing right

    I believe that if you are a beggining trader and you find yourself consistently buying tops and selling bottoms, you can probably be cultivated into a very successfull intuitive trader. But only if you apply sound money management, and cut your losses. During the bull market is when I...
  14. J

    Dec. Fortune Mag: $11,000 into 18 Million in 3 years

    Huby: Give a man a fish and he will eat for a day, teach him to fish and he will eat for the rest of his life.
  15. J

    Bullets & Conversions

    Bullets somehow allow you to short on a downtick. I read it explained once but I didnt really understand it. They are not an option for retail traders, I believe you must be a member of an exchange to use them. I have no idea what conversions are. I'm sure rtharp could explain both. :)
  16. J

    What do you think about this?

    Praetorian2 hit on another reason why many won't make it... Like him, it also took me 3 year to get emotions in check. Most people dont have the patience or the will to trade for 3 years and not be succesful. Especially after blowing a bunch of money at the start. There are a few traders...
  17. J

    Calculating stops.

    You should always choose a stop point purely objectively... Then size your position to fix in a percent loss. Example... Lets say you are swing trading, and you want to use yesterdays low as a stop (50, lets say), you buy the stock at 51. Your capital is 20,000, you want to risk 2%...
  18. J

    My story!

    I agree with rtharp... And I also honestly think it would have been better to take the large loss earlier and learn from it. The fact that you got out now without the huge loss, may feel good, but it probably will prove to be less of a learning experience. And in a while... It may...
  19. J

    Good trading setup?

    Thanks again for the help so far... Now that I think about it, I may choose 256megs ram instead of 512. But I have a question... What kind of ram should I choose? I used to know alot more about hardware 5 years ago, but everything has changed and I didnt keep up. Is the faster...
  20. J

    Good trading setup?

    neoh, For starters, I'll be running E-Signal, have 2 spread sheets open (one small, one kinda big), IB's traderworkstation (installed, not java), Metastock, and explorer. And possibly a wildcard or 2. I'd like a system that could run all that smooth, with ease. And still have room...
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